An expression of unbridled power is no more explicit than kidnapping a sitting president from the capital in the middle of the night.
In a 74-word social media post, President Donald Trump demonstrated that he can act decisively, suddenly, and possibly recklessly to pursue his diverse foreign policy goals with little regard for precedent, consequences, or, seemingly, international law.
The operation to get Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife out of a heavily fortified location in Caracas to (presumably) face the U.S. court system does follow a predictable but extreme pattern of so-called fugitives from the United States, with a $50 million bounty on his head.
But there is one critical exception: Maduro is the head of state, and his country is a victim of various ongoing U.S. political goals. No matter what the indictment says, this always feels political.
Successive White Houses have sought to overthrow Venezuela’s left-leaning, authoritarian and sometimes violent regime – whether to fight drug trafficking, oil or regional alliances.
Trump’s second term prompted Maduro to end a major role in a vast regional drug trafficking network, which was key to his rationale. But when they suggested that Maduro step down, they encountered a paradox: He could not be both a main character and someone who could step back from his role at any time.
The evidence that Maduro is at the top of the regional tree is also less strong than the White House would like. Yes, Venezuela certainly allows drug trafficking from its airspace and coast, and Colombia, the world’s largest producer of cocaine, is right across the border. But drug cartels in Mexico and Colombia are larger and appear to have received less U.S. military attention.
At the heart of the move is Washington’s ambition to gain greater control over its immediate neighbors, what they call an updated version of the Monroe Doctrine.
A compliant Venezuela is better for U.S. hydrocarbon markets, but most importantly provides a place to return to for the millions of Venezuelans currently seeking asylum in the United States.
But as it stands, it’s unclear what will happen next, or whether there will be an immediate successor willing to take on the same kidnapping risks. It remains to be seen whether that will spark anti-American anger or usher in days of celebrations at the end of a dictatorship that mismanaged Venezuela’s economy and sent it into freefall.
Maduro’s departure would be a victory for Trump, but his subsequent chaos or collapse would be a cascading loss. The “next step” plan is more important than the shocking display of the United States over Caracas early Saturday morning.
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