After his latest diplomatic retreat from the standoff with Iran, President Trump has gone into apparent on-hold mode, trying to find an exit from the war that would allow him to claim victory.
Trump unilaterally extended a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday after abandoning his threat to bomb Iranian civilization earlier this month – both times at the request of Pakistan, which was mediating the talks.
Trump’s attempts to strangle Iran’s economy through a naval blockade have yet to yield results at the negotiating table.
The United States has narrowed its war aims to ensuring Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, a vague goal that has yet to be explained by the administration.
“I don’t think the Iranians are going to end their nuclear program. Anyone calling for that is basically calling for war until the place is essentially occupied by the United States,” said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and founding director of the Iran Project.
However, he said Iran was “clearly” more willing to “provide more assurances to Obama than in the past” in 2015.
So far, the guarantees have not been enough to satisfy Trump as he seeks a deal that is significantly better than the one struck in 2018.
Iran maintains a large stockpile of highly enriched uranium, the fuel needed for nuclear weapons, and seizing it would require either Iran’s consent or some form of ground invasion.
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz makes the waterway a key focus of negotiations and gives Tehran significant leverage in any further talks.
The White House on Wednesday was expected to take control of the war despite Iran’s negotiating team refusing to participate in a second round of talks scheduled for Wednesday.
White House press secretary Carolyn Leavitt told reporters that Trump was “generously providing a little bit of flexibility to a regime that is completely damaged,” referring to the extension of the ceasefire.
“This is a battle between Iranian pragmatists and hard-liners, and the president wants a unified response,” she said.
While the Iranian regime has sent some mixed messages over the Strait of Hormuz over the past week, both its supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and the official leading its negotiating team, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, are seen as close to the military.
Elisa Ewers, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said all of Trump’s choices carry significant risks.
“That’s part of the danger that we’re in a zero-sum escalation cycle – one side is escalating with the intent of getting the other side to capitulate. If that doesn’t happen, you’re faced with a choice: Either move on, downsize, or look at the next rung on the escalation ladder. All of that comes with a cost.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian blamed Trump for derailing the talks, saying the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, the president’s threats of violence against the country and his “broken promises” made it unsustainable.
Pezeshkian wrote on social platform
Trump and Pakistani officials are pushing for talks with Iran on Friday, the New York Post reported.
But Levitt also said Wednesday that the president has not set a deadline for Iran for new proposals to end the war, adding that “the timeline will be determined by the commander in chief.”
Watanka noted that the nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration took more than a year to finalize.
“This time too it will take months, but you need a ceasefire,” he said. “You need to open the Strait of Hormuz, you need to build trust.”
Morgan Weiner, who served at the United Nations during Trump’s first term, said the Iranians are better positioned to withstand pressure than Trump, given his pledge to avoid a forever war and his party facing midterm elections amid high oil prices.
“It’s in their favor to make this so long and painful,” she said Wednesday on the “Fault Lines” podcast. “But President Trump is too willing and too eager to make a deal here, and I don’t think that’s conducive to us finding a long-term solution.”
The United States and Iran continued to face pressure across the Strait on Wednesday, with the global economy also suffering.
Iran attacked three vessels in the strait and escorted two others to its ports on Tuesday after the United States boarded a sanctioned vessel in the Indian Ocean.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing that the U.S. government was under pressure to issue another 30-day sanctions exemption to allow Russian oil to enter the market at the request of “more than a dozen of the most energy vulnerable and poorest countries.”
Bessant was criticized by Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) for lining his own pockets with another $4.5 billion to finance Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
With Trump unable to reopen the strait, Britain and France convened military planners from more than 30 countries to discuss plans to restore access to the waterway. Last week, more than 50 countries convened an international conference.
Ewers of the Council on Foreign Relations said the blockade was gaining influence, as was the U.S. military posture in the region.
“Obviously, [Iranian] The regime doesn’t want to impose a lockdown,” she said. “It’s willing to live with it, and then the question becomes, how long is it going to last? “
“Now we’re in a much more ambiguous state,” Ewers added.
“The question is, in the current context, how can the president declare victory? I do think it’s more difficult now because there’s still no clear strategic endgame.”
Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports and streaming video, head to The Hill.