Thousands of Chinese fishing boats have gathered in geometric formations in the East China Sea, in what experts see as part of Beijing’s preparations for a potential regional crisis or conflict.
Jason Wang was monitoring ship tracking data on Christmas Day and noticed something “unusual” was happening, with fishing boats swarming into two parallel inverted L-shaped boats, each about 400 kilometers (about 250 miles) long.
Wang could see about 2,000 fishing vessels among the thousands of vessels plying the busy waterway through the Automatic Identification System (AIS) – a GPS-type signal used by commercial ships to avoid collisions.
The ships, nearly 500 meters (1,640 feet) apart from each other, held their position in near-force winds for about 30 hours before suddenly scattering.
“It seemed to me that something was not quite right because you rarely see straight lines in nature,” said Wang, chief operating officer of ingeniSPACE, which analyzes satellite imagery and ship signal data.
“We’ve seen about two, 300, up to a thousand (Chinese fishing boats gathering together), but I think anything over a thousand is unusual.”
Maritime and military experts told AFP that on December 25, Chinese fishing boats gathered about 300 kilometers northeast of Taiwan on a scale they had never seen before.
Another incident discovered in early January involved about 1,000 Chinese fishing boats gathering into an irregular rectangle about 400 kilometers long in the same waters of the East China Sea for more than a day.
Hundreds of such ships were also spotted in the Dec. 25 incident, Wang told AFP in an interview in Taipei.
Last week, about 1,200 ships gathered on two parallel lines east of where the incidents in January and December took place and held their positions for about 30 hours, Wang said.
China’s vast fishing fleet operates in the Yellow, East and South China Seas, competing with fishermen from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines.
While there is debate over why so many Chinese fishing boats gather in geometric shapes on the high seas, experts generally agree they are not there to catch fish.
Some experts say the only reasonable explanation is that China is testing its ability to mobilize large numbers of fishing vessels that could be deployed in military operations such as a blockade or invasion of Taiwan, or in a crisis with Japan.
“I have never seen such a large number of Chinese fishing vessels anywhere other than a port,” Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, said of the Dec. 25 event.
Jennifer Parker, a former Australian naval operations officer, said the exercises were “demonstrations with military footage” to show viewers the ships’ ability to coordinate operations.
“I’ve traveled all over the world and I’ve never seen fishermen operating in such close quarters and in such concentration,” said Parker, now a specialist associate at the Australian National University’s School of National Security.
“They’re definitely not fishing.”
David Kruzma, chief scientist at Global Fisheries Watch, said China’s fishing fleet is “highly coordinated” and it’s possible the vessels have been ordered not to fish in specific areas.
“Most of the time when you see rows of boats, it’s because they happen to hit some border that doesn’t allow them in. In this area, that’s what you see most of the time,” Kruzma said.
“If you look across the year, you’ll see many, many examples where there’s clearly a line and they shouldn’t cross the fishing line at different times. We don’t know why.”
-“State operations”-
AFP’s reporting on this story involved analysis of AIS data and nighttime satellite imagery, as well as interviews with experts from ingeniSPACE, Starboard Maritime Intelligence, CSIS and Global Fishing Watch, who also looked at the formation in December and January.
Unseenlabs, a French company specializing in maritime surveillance, verified the Dec. 25 data with AFP and called the concentration of ships “surprising and unusual.”
Experts believe that most of the vessels are genuine and not spoofed, in which the AIS data is manipulated to provide misleading information about the vessel’s location or identity.
“We’ve got enough other corroborating data … to confirm that these vessels are clearly there,” Poulin said.
Mark Douglas, a former New Zealand naval officer and current Starboard marine analyst, said as part of his work to validate the data, he examined fishing patterns in the same area over the past two years.
“This behavior has never been like this,” Douglas said. “In other periods of severe weather, vessels would return to port rather than gathering in formations like this offshore.”
“I can’t say why … but it does appear that instructions were given to these vessels that this was what they needed to do,” Douglas said.
Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. Navy submarine warfare officer and now an adjunct senior fellow at the defense program at the Center for a New American Security, said the number of ships involved suggested it was a “national operation.”
“As far as I know, there is no commercial entity that controls so many fishing vessels,” Shugart said.
-“Sea Militia”-
In the global firepower rankings, the Chinese Navy ranks first in the world in terms of number of warships and submarines.
Experts say Beijing also uses its vast civilian fleet, including fishing boats, ferries and cargo ships, as part of preparations for regional crises or conflicts, including over Taiwan.
China has threatened to use force if necessary to seize Taiwan, which it claims as part of its territory, and U.S. officials have listed 2027 as a possible timetable for an attack.
In its 2025 China Military Power Report submitted to Congress, the U.S. Department of Defense stated: “The People’s Liberation Army continues to make steady progress toward its 2027 goal” and “China hopes to win the war against Taiwan before the end of the year.”
Beijing has stepped up military pressure on Taiwan in recent years, deploying fighter jets and warships around the island on an almost daily basis.
China has also held a number of large-scale drills around Taiwan that are often described as rehearsals for blockades and territorial seizures.
Shugart said civilian ships are “absolutely central” to China’s military plans against Taiwan.
The Chinese navy does not have enough landing ships to transport the troops and equipment needed to invade Taiwan.
“Without dual-use maritime power, I don’t think they could invade Taiwan,” Shugart said. “Then (it) becomes ‘maybe they can.'”
Some experts say many of the fishing boats involved in the December and January build-ups may have been part of China’s maritime militia.
The maritime militia, made up of trained fishing boats, supports the military and the fleet has been used to assert China’s territorial claims, including in the South China Sea, where they congregate on disputed coral reefs.
Pollin said AIS data showed the “vast majority” of the ships gathering in the East China Sea appeared to come from the eastern province of Zhejiang, where several maritime militia ports are located.
“Like the militia on land in China, they are often called up for reserve duty,” Paulin said.
“My guess is it’s to see if the militias can be mustered. They are civilians, they are not professional militias in the South China Sea, they are fishermen,” he said.
Parker said maritime militias would serve “a range of roles” in military operations, such as harassing warships or acting as decoys for enemy missiles, although she noted their presence could also interfere with China’s own ability to strike targets.
“It is clear that China’s operational plans in the South China Sea and around Taiwan include maritime militia as a force multiplier,” she said.
“It is reasonable to assume that this would be the case in the event of a military crisis with Japan.”
– Threat of retaliation –
Jay Tarriela, a spokesman for the Philippine Coast Guard, said that the role of maritime militia in the South China Sea is not limited to containment of islands and reefs, but also helps the Chinese Coast Guard to “intercept and harass” Philippine fishing boats and even use high-pressure water cannons against Filipino fishermen.
“They don’t play a secret role anymore,” Taliera said.
“They are actually part of the (Chinese) government and a fleet advancing their illegal interests in the South China Sea.”
Beijing has yet to comment publicly on the East China Sea fishing fleet.
The Japanese Coast Guard declined to comment when contacted by AFP. Tokyo’s dispute with Beijing deepened after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan would intervene militarily if China tried to take over Taiwan by force.
One diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP it was “very difficult” to deal with China’s gray zone activities (coercive actions that do not constitute an act of war) or military operations in the region.
“China often threatens or hints at retaliation – but the specifics are often unclear,” the diplomat said.
Experts say the fishing boat maneuvers are in line with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s overall goal of preparing the military to seize Taiwan.
“I can’t tell you whether Xi Jinping will decide to pull the trigger,” Shugart said.
“But as an analyst, it does appear that the PLA is following instructions to develop the capabilities needed to credibly threaten an invasion in 2027.”
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