Bitcoin While spot prices continue to move higher, funding rates are flashing one of their most bearish positioning signals in years.
Caerus Global founder and CIO James Aitchison said at the 2026 Consensus Conference in Miami that annualized financing rates have been approaching -4%. This means longs will be paid to hold exposure, a rare occurrence that indicates a large short position.
“It’s pretty rare for the longs to get paid,” Atchison said. “On a 30-day basis, this is the lowest level in nearly a decade.”
This setup reflects a broader derivatives disconnect. In April, Bitcoin funding rates hit their lowest negative value since 2023, even though BTC topped $75,000 at the time. Atchison said that historically, similar situations have produced positive returns over periods of 30 to 365 days.
As of this writing, Bitcoin has rebounded from around $60,000 to as low as $80,000. The move forces traders to reassess whether old cryptocurrency-native signals are still valid in a market increasingly influenced by ETFs, basis trading and Wall Street distribution.
Spot Bitcoin ETF demand has remained unchanged during the decline. Despite selling by short-term holders, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted $1.6 billion so far this month.
This resiliency puts ETF holders at the heart of the current market structure. Dan Blackmore, chief commercial officer of Glassnode, said that Bitcoin is entering a new mechanism as volatility decreases and allocations become more strategic.
“We are witnessing the early development of the Wall Street machine and its impact on the cryptocurrency market,” Buckmore said.
Options are accelerating this shift. In April, IBIT options open interest surpassed Deribit, indicating that Bitcoin derivatives activity has moved to regulated U.S. venues. Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF just opened last month, adding another large wealth management platform to the market.
Panelists were divided on whether the four-year cycle is still important. Michael Terpin, author of “Bitcoin Super Cycle,” said Bitcoin could still trade lower before a bigger supply shock in 2028-2029. Others believe that the halving cycle is losing power as Bitcoin becomes a TradFi asset.
The year-end conference call reflected this schism. Terpin and Backmore said Bitcoin may not reach new highs this year. Volmex Labs founder Cole Kennelly said $250,000 is possible. Acheson said $150,000 is a reasonable target if interest rates are cut again.