Author: Panu Wongcha-um and Devjyot Ghoshal
BANGKOK (Reuters) – Voters turned out well for Thailand’s election on Sunday, which will be contested by conservative, progressive and populist camps, with no one party expected to gain an outright majority, prolonging the specter of political instability.
Amid a bitter border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has set the stage for snap elections in mid-December, a move that analysts say the conservative leader is seeking to cash in on rising nationalism.
He had been in power for less than 100 days at the time, having taken over after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra of the populist Pheu Thai party was ousted over the crisis in Cambodia.
Investigations revealed that Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire former prime minister with the support of the prime minister, was jailed just days after his daughter was deported.
“We have tried our best,” Anutin told reporters after the vote at the Bumjethai party stronghold in Buriram, northeast of Bangkok. “We want the people to have confidence in us.”
But in most polls during the campaign season, it is the progressive People’s Party that leads the way with its message of structural change and reform in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.
“This election is about whether Thailand will emerge from this difficult situation, whether Thailand will emerge from the ongoing political instability and economic downturn,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.
“I’m afraid my initial conclusion is that it’s not going to break out.”
Within hours after voting began, a steady stream of voters walked into polling stations across Bangkok, including 44-year-old company employee Suwat Kiatsuwan.
“I don’t want the same people anymore,” he said after the vote. “If we vote like we did before, nothing will change. We’re not going anywhere.”
Voting closed at 5pm local time (1000 GMT) and preliminary results are expected within hours.
pre-election survey
Although it has already launched a fight against Anutin’s party and Pheu Thai, the party may not have enough support to win a parliamentary majority, raising the risk of repeating the fate of its predecessors.
In a survey conducted in the final week of the campaign released on Sunday, the National Development Management Institute projected that Bhumjaithai would emerge as the winner, with 140-150 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives, 125-135 ahead of the BJP.
The PPP’s predecessor Kadima Party won the last election in 2023 but was blocked from forming a government by military-appointed senate and conservative lawmakers, opening the door for a Pheu Thai Party takeover.
The protracted struggle between the powerful royalist conservatives and the popular democratic movement has created a period of uncertainty punctuated by street protests, violence and military coups.
constitutional referendum
Thai voters will also be asked during the vote to decide whether the 2017 charter should be replaced by a new constitution, a military-backed document that critics say concentrates power in undemocratic institutions, including a powerful Senate elected through an indirect election process with limited public participation.
Thailand has had 20 constitutions since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932, with most changes following military coups.
If voters support the drafting of a new national charter, the new government and lawmakers can initiate an amendment process in parliament, and two more referendums will be needed to adopt a new constitution.
“I believe the party that wins the next election will have a huge influence on the direction of constitutional reform, whether we abandon the constitution drafted by the junta or not,” said Napon Jatusripitak of the Bangkok-based Future of Thailand think tank.
different strategies
The surge of nationalism triggered by the Thai-Cambodian conflict, the rise of Pheu Thai and its decline after last year’s travails, triggered a series of defections and reshaped the political battlefield, including in vote-rich agricultural belts.
Some parties have responded by attracting local prominent figures, including from rival groups, into their ranks, aiming to capture the networks of personal loyalties that are crucial to winning in the interior.
The reform-minded People’s Party has also changed its strategy, downplaying the progressive movement’s anti-establishment stance and bringing in outside talent to convince voters it is capable of running the government.
Former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has also joined the party, using his personal appeal to revive the once-moribund Democratic Party, which could become a key force in post-election coalition talks.
(Additional reporting by Thomas Suen, Minh Nguyen and Napat Wesshasartar; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)