The Philadelphia Eagles have a big decision to make in Week 18.
Should they start against the Washington Commanders? Or should they be given a break?
If the Chicago Bears defeat San Francisco on Sunday night, resting the starters will be an easy decision as the Jays will lock up the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoffs.
advertise
But the Bears’ loss opens the door for the Eagles to move into the No. 2 seed if 1) Philadelphia beats Washington and 2) Chicago loses to the Detroit Lions in the final week of the regular season.
So, what do the Eagles do?
Here are some thoughts on the matter and conclusions.
The No. 2 seed carries significant value.
The difference between second and third place is not insignificant. We just saw the Eagles win the Super Bowl last season as the No. 2 seed.
If the second seed can win the first home game in the wild-card round, they are guaranteed to host the second home playoff game. If the Eagles can move up to second place, they’ll have a chance to play at home against the Green Bay Packers… whom they defeated earlier this season at Lambeau Field. Now without Micah Parsons, Green Bay could enter the playoffs on a four-game losing streak if they can’t beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18.
advertise
If the Eagles can beat the Packers and then win in the divisional round, they’ll be able to host the NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia when the top seed loses its first playoff game. This apparently happened last year when the Detroit Lions lost to the Washington Commanders.
The Eagles may not need a starter to beat the Commanders.
The quality of the play-callers is so poor they might use 39-year-old Josh Johnson at quarterback.
Last year, the Eagles’ backups outplayed the New York Giants’ starters in Week 18. This outcome does not guarantee that it will happen again in this location. But there’s some reason to think Tanner McGee’s performance is good enough to lead the Jays to victory.
advertise
Dan Quinn could really derail the Eagles’ hopes of a second seed.
Commanders players didn’t seem to appreciate Nick Sirianni’s late two-point conversion in the Eagles’ Week 17 win over Washington. After the game, Commanders head coach Dan Quinn spoke forcefully about how they will see the Eagles again in Week 18.
It seems like the Commanders are happy to play tough against the Eagles. Might even play dirty tricks to try to sabotage their division rivals.
The Lions’ motivation for beating the Bears is unclear.
The Lions lost to the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day, officially out of playoff contention. They have nothing to play for except Week 18 pride.
advertise
But do we really expect a comeback from Dan Campbell’s team? The Lions could beat the Bears to end their season on a positive note and potentially drop Chicago to the third seed.
The Lions have a clear rest advantage in this game, as they last played on the afternoon of December 25th, while the Bears play on the road on the evening of December 28th.
There are some caveats for the Eagles’ rested players.
It doesn’t have to be an all-or-nothing proposition. The Eagles could rest some players who weren’t quite ready to play in Week 18, such as Lane Johnson. Or Nakobe Dean, who missed Week 17 with a hamstring injury.
advertise
The Eagles can also monitor the progress of the Lions-Bears game. If Chicago jumps out to a big lead early on and looks like they’re going to win, the Eagles can pull their starters.
Make a call
If I were the Eagles, I would ask myself what I would regret more in this situation.
If I rested the starters in the loss to Washington and the Bears happened to lose, it would be really hard to live with without trying to get the No. 2 seed.
If I’m the starter and someone gets hurt and the Eagles don’t get the No. 2 seed, well, that’s bad. But at least I know I’m trying to get the No. 2 seed. I can live with this.
So I believe the Eagles should seriously pursue the No. 2 seed. Rested starters would be ideal, but this team’s extra rest hasn’t been all that great this season. They beat Carson Wentz’s Minnesota Vikings by six points after a mini-bye. They won a three-point game against the Green Bay Packers after their true bye week. They lost to the Los Angeles Chargers after another mini-bye.
Being the starter, it feels good because you at least tried to get the No. 2 seed, even if you didn’t get it.
What did you say?