Bitcoin Stocks are on the defensive as April comes to a close, although seasonal trends suggest any pullback may be short-lived and could pave the way for a fresh leg higher in the coming weeks.
Data dating back to 2013 shows that May tends to be a bullish month for the largest cryptocurrency, rising in seven of the past 13 years. While the average return of around 8% isn’t as impressive as strong months like October and November, it still suggests a positive bias.
Following a roughly 10% gain in April, seasonal patterns suggest the broader upward trend is likely to remain intact. The outlook is supported by similarly bullish seasonal factors for the S&P 500, which is already hovering near all-time highs.
Consecutive monthly net inflows into U.S.-listed cash exchange-traded funds (ETFs) point to strong institutional demand and support the bullish case. The ETFs have taken in more than $1.8 billion this month, following $1.32 billion in March.
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Still, traders will need to keep a close eye on bond markets, where rising yields pose headwinds for risk assets.
“Bitcoin’s failure to sustain above $78,000 and its subsequent pullback to $75,000 suggests the market is pricing in a ‘longer move higher,'” Nansen research analyst Jake Kennis said in an email. “In the absence of liquidity catalysts, macro headwinds have limited near-term upside despite largely flat 14-day performance (+0.7%), so it looks range-bound rather than poised for a breakout.”
Another risk is a sudden outbreak of the global economy. Several observers, including energy analyst Anas Alhajji, have warned that the negative impact of the Iran war and energy market chaos could bring down the global economy in May.
10X Research founder Markus Thielen made the same recommendation in a note to clients on Thursday.
“May is when the lag ends and the real economy starts footing the bill,” he said. Stay alert!
Learn more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Markets. For a complete list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
what is trend
today’s signal
This chart shows Bitcoin’s price fluctuations in 2026 and 2021-22 in candlestick format. The chart shows two lines: the red line represents the 50-day average price, and the white line represents the 100-day average price.
As of today, the 50-day moving average appears poised to break above the 100-day moving average. Chart analysts view this as a bullish crossover, indicating that short-term momentum is strengthening relative to the medium-term trend and, if sustained, could lead to further gains.
Therefore, the upcoming cross indicates that Bitcoin price will rise further in the future. That said, the metric has a mixed record, especially during bear markets. For example, a similar bullish crossover occurred in March 2022, as shown in the chart to the right. However, it ended up trapping bulls on the wrong side of the market as the price fell further over the next few weeks.