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Scientists Think We May Have the Evolutionary Timeline All Wrong

As you read this story, you will learn the following:

  • Molecular clock theory holds that genetic changes occur steadily and gradually, providing a reliable means of exploring the past and theorizing when complex life first appeared.

  • However, there are mismatches between the fossil record and the theory, including a 30-million-year gap between the emergence of complex life and the first fossils, which date back about 530 million years ago.

  • A new study proposes a model that injects some variability into the ticking evolutionary clock, proposing that the process accelerated as a large group of organisms emerged.


The famous analogy is that if all of Earth’s geological history were compressed into a calendar year, modern humans wouldn’t emerge until around 11:50 on New Year’s Eve. rightrecorded Human history emerges even later. Considering our planet’s long past, it’s amazing how much our humble species learns in those last few minutes before midnight.

However, as always, there is still much to learn when it comes to understanding where we came from, and while we have developed a solid model to explain how life evolved from single-cell organisms to the complex networks we see today (in the form of Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution), questions remain. Chief among them is the apparent fossil gap between when scientists believe complex life emerged and when we see the first fossils (in this case, forms of worm-like creatures from the genus) Trepcinusdating back to about 538 million years ago).

Using the concept of a molecular clock (which, at its most basic, works backwards through the genetic record, assuming that genetic changes occur steadily), scientists estimate that there is a gap of about 30 million years that cannot be explained by what we currently see in fossils. Of course, fossils are hard to find in the first place, and one theory is that these earliest animals were very small (and therefore hard to find) due to low oxygen levels. But a new study published in the journal systems biology It raises questions about the molecular clock itself and shows that evolution is not as steadily “ticking” as we thought.

Graham Budd (a paleontologist at Uppsala University) and Richard Mann (a mathematical ecologist at the University of Leeds), who have long analyzed molecular clocks and even developed mathematical models to determine how major animal groups rose up in evolution, proposed an idea called the “covariant evolutionary rhythm model” to help explain some of the inconsistencies between molecular clocks and the fossil record.

“The model predicts that at all times in history, including the present, diversity is dominated by a few extremely large clades; these large clades are expected to be characterized by explosive early radiations accompanied by accelerated rates of molecular evolution; and extant organisms are likely to have evolved from species that evolved unusually fast,” the authors write.

in an article dialogueMax Telford, an evolutionary biologist at University College London, breaks down this model by explaining how this variable rhythm could dramatically shorten the time gap between where we expect complex life to appear and the first observable fossils. Telford explains that there are six million years of evolution between humans and chimpanzees, for example. For simplicity’s sake, if there are six genetic changes between the two species and the molecular clock remains constant, this would indicate one genetic change every million years.

However, covariant evolutionary rhythm models suggest that evolution actually accelerates when a large group of organisms emerges. This way it can be done Appear When evolution really fast-forwards, much more time has passed, diverging into the various groups that eventually appear in the fossil record.

“While the idea of ​​a speeding clock needs testing,” Telford writes, “it could explain other mismatches between molecular clocks and the fossil record.”

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