I think the Green Bay Packers are better than the Chicago Bears in a vacuum. However, I can’t bring myself to be completely optimistic about the Week 14 game because I keep coming back to the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers really remind me of the Bears, especially on offense, and the Packers really struggle with the Panthers because they do one thing particularly well.
The Panthers have a smaller, mobile quarterback who isn’t particularly good at passing the ball. The Panthers have a very Roman Odunze-like Tate McMillan. But most importantly, the Panthers have Rico Dowdle, followed by Chuba Hubbard. You may recall that Dowdle rushed for 130 yards and two scores on 25 carries, essentially winning Carolina’s game against the Packers on his own. Dowdle is having a phenomenal season, ranking fifth in Next Gen Stats’ rushing yards per attempt over expected, but he also had success against the Packers because he hit a specific weakness.
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In a recent article on FTN.com, Bryan Knowles discussed how the Packers are vulnerable to an upset by the Bears, and the biggest weakness Knowles identified was Green Bay’s weakness in the zone run. The Packers are the worst team against the interior run defense so far this season, with a ridiculous 31.1% DVOA. Dowdell had 17 carries for 73 yards against the Panthers, including two touchdowns, and if the yardage total seems low, remember that the two touchdown runs totaled 6 yards.
In their signature victory over the Eagles on Black Friday, the Bears gained 281 yards, 44.7% of which came in the zone, and averaged 7.2 yards per carry. Kyle Monangay (21.3% DVOA) and DeAndre Swift (12.4%) have excelled in the paint all season, and the Bears may be aware of this weakness in Green Bay, as the Carolina game wasn’t the only time it happened. Quinshon Judkins was equally impressive in the Browns’ earlier win over the Packers, and even Giants running back Tyrone Tracy was unstoppable in Green Bay’s win over the Giants.
Packers losses are usually low-scoring affairs where opposing running backs go crazy, and the Bears should be able to execute at least half of that equation. If the Packers passing game decides to take a bye week, the Bears could be in a good position again, and you can bet Ben Johnson will do whatever it takes to hit that weakness repeatedly.