The Los Angeles Rams are the No. 1 seed in the NFC after defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12 on Sunday Night Football. That continued all week, and after a loss to the Carolina Panthers in Week 13, the Rams were no longer in control of their own destiny. With this loss, the Chicago Bears become the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and the Rams’ margin for error becomes even smaller.
If the Rams simply beat the teams they’re supposed to beat while splitting time with the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions, they’ll lock up the top seed. After losing to the Panthers, it will be difficult for the Rams to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC without sweeping the Seahawks. In fact, they probably need to win.
NFL Playoff Predictions
After losing to the Panthers, the Rams still had a good shot at getting the top seed, but have fallen down. According to DVOA playoff odds, the Rams have a 36.2% chance of earning the No. 1 seed. ESPN gives the Rams a 30% chance of receiving the No. 1 seed and a bye week.
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For the past few years, the Rams’ top priority has been making the playoffs. That’s why they’ve held out starters in Week 18 each of the past two seasons, even though they didn’t lock in a seed. The Rams risked a No. 7 seed in 2024 and then a No. 4 seed last year.
Does it change anything? Probably not. However, the Rams have had to go on the road in every playoff loss. That’s why the No. 1 seed is so important.
As a low seed on the road, Matthew Stafford has a 1-5 career record, including a 1-2 record against the Rams. Since 2017, the Rams are 2-3 in such games under Sean McVay. However, Stafford is 4-0 as the home team, including 3-0 at SoFi Stadium. McVay hasn’t lost a home playoff game since his first season in 2017. That’s not even mentioning that the Rams are 5-1 at home this season.
In 2025, Stafford did not throw a single interception at SoFi Stadium. Defensively, the Rams are allowing 15.2 points per game at home. On the road, they conceded an average of 19.8 points per game, and the two games in which they conceded more than 30 points were both on the road.
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The goal of this team shouldn’t be just to get involved. While they may be confident they can beat any team on any venue, there are certainly ways to make their path easier. This team needs to avoid road trips to Chicago, Philadelphia, Green Bay or Seattle in January, as weather will almost certainly be a factor.
It’s also worth noting how much of an advantage it is to have the top seed since the NFL adjusted its playoff format. There isn’t much of a correlation between a bye week and a team losing momentum. The bye week and extra rest are important. Since the NFL implemented a seven-team format, four of the eight teams have made it to the Super Bowl. Additionally, five of the eight won their first playoff game and reached championship weekend.
Many of the top-seeded teams that lost their first game were pretenders. While the Tennessee Titans are the top seed in 2021, they rank 18th in NFL DVOA. The Green Bay Packers are seventh. The Detroit Lions had 21 injured players last season, including several defensive starters.
The sample size is certainly still small, but having a No. 1 seed does provide an advantage. After loss, the road becomes more difficult. Below is the remaining schedule for the participating teams
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chicago bears
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Week 14: @Green Bay Packers
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Week 15: vs. Cleveland Browns
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Week 16: vs. Green Bay Packers
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Week 17: @SF49ers
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Week 18: vs. Detroit Lions
While the Bears are 9-3 and the top seed in the NFC, their schedule does become very difficult. A possible two losses in those five games would drop their record to 12-5. However, their projected win total is 11. Due to league record, the Rams couldn’t tie the Bears and get the No. 1 seed.
Los Angeles Rams
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Week 14: @Arizona Cardinals
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Week 15: vs. Detroit Lions
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Week 16: @SeattleSeahawks
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Week 17: @AtlantaFalcons
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Week 18: vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Rams are currently 9-3 with a projected win percentage of 12.5 games. To all but secure themselves as the No. 1 seed, they almost need to sweep the Seahawks. Regardless, however, they need to at least split the Seahawks and Lions games and win their remaining three games. That would bring their record to 13-4. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler wrote in his weekly column:
“Two of the best NFC teams could potentially play each other in the West, and when the Rams and Seahawks met earlier this season, the Rams prevailed, but only after a last-second field goal miss. A Week 16 rematch in Seattle could decide the division title, as both teams are 9-3. The Rams have two games left against the 3-9 Cardinals and a trip to Atlanta, but their toughest non-Seattle game will be at home this week against the Lions at 15. The Seahawks have road games in Atlanta, Carolina and San Francisco, as well as home games against the Colts and Rams.
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seattle seahawks
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Week 14: @AtlantaFalcons
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Week 15: vs. Indianapolis Colts
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Week 16: vs. Los Angeles Rams
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Week 17: @Carolina Panthers
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Week 18: @SF49ers
Although the Seahawks’ upcoming schedule will not be easy, they can win with the performance of their defense. They could lose one of their two NFC South games on the road. They could lose to the Colts and Rams, while the 49ers will compete for a playoff spot in Week 18.
The Falcons will have Kirk Cousins on waivers from the Colts. Their win total is 12.5, tied with the Rams. The divisional rounds in Weeks 16 and 18 may be the most difficult. If the Seahawks lose one of their final games, the Rams will be the top seed.
philadelphia eagles
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Week 14: @Los Angeles Chargers
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Week 15: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
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Week 16: @WashingtonCommander
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Week 18: vs. Washington Commanders
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It’s hard to know exactly what’s going on with the Eagles at this point. Justin Herbert just had hand surgery. The Eagles’ best chance of another loss might come in Week 17. Their projected win total is 11.2. With a current record of 8-4, they are expected to lose two games.
While the Rams could tie the Seahawks and still get the No. 1 seed, that’s not the case with the Eagles. The Eagles own head-to-head matchups. If the Rams lose another game, they also need to hope the Eagles lose another game.
San Francisco 49ers
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Week 15: vs. Tennessee Titans
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Week 16: @Indianapolis Colts
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Week 17: vs. Chicago Bears
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Week 18: vs. Seattle Seahawks
With an easy schedule, the 49ers still have a chance to earn the No. 1 seed. The 49ers currently have a record of 9-4 and are expected to win. They’ll catch the Colts at the right time and have home games against the Bears and Seahawks. With that said, their projected win total is 11.2.
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The only way for the Rams to tie the 49ers and still lead is to lose to the Seahawks. If the 49ers win that game, they’ll move to 5-1 in the NFC West. Ideally, the 49ers lose to the Bears and get annoyed by the Colts, keeping them out of the conversation.
green bay packers
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Week 14: vs. Chicago Bears
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Week 15: @DenverBroncos
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Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens
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Week 18: @Minnesota Vikings
The Packers are 8-3-1 and have a projected win total of 11.7 games. However, they have been inconsistent this season and have had some difficult games. It’s possible they could split with the Bears and then lose to the Broncos or Ravens. Unless the Rams unexpectedly tie one of their remaining games, the Rams just need to get one more win than the Packers.
So…what are the Rams’ chances?
At the end of the day, the Rams can only control what they can control. They just need to win the remaining games they’re supposed to win, which would put them in a good position to compete for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. While the Rams may consider themselves a team that can win anywhere, the top seed should be a priority. Playing at home in January is a significant advantage. This team is in a different place than it was the past two years, with goals beyond just making the playoffs.
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The road did become more difficult and the margin of error smaller after the loss to the Panthers. That doesn’t mean it’s not out of reach, either. This is still one of the best teams in the NFL, and with five games left, they’ll have a chance to prove it.