We may have some of the worst teams in the NFL season unable to cover wide areas.
There were five double-digit losers last week. Four of the teams failed to cover, and the list of teams eliminated in this case was among the worst in the NFL: Raiders, Cardinals, Titans, Jets. The only team to score in double digits is the Colts, who are 8-6, but they start 44-year-old Philip Rivers on the road against the Seahawks. Double-digit underdogs are not competitive and look like they are ready for the end of the season.
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There are two double-digit underdogs this week: the Browns (-10) at home against the Bills and the Raiders (-14.5) at home against the Texans. It will be interesting to see whether last week’s trends continue.
Here are the top betting storylines heading into Week 16 of the NFL season, with all odds from BetMGM:
Josh Allen returns to MVP contention
Last week’s odds suggested a two-man battle for NFL MVP between Matthew Stafford and Derek Meyer. The reigning MVP had something to say about that.
Allen had another big game, leading the Bills to a victory from a 21-0 deficit against the Patriots and keeping the AFC East title alive. This also allows Allen to continue to compete for MVP.
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Stafford is the -300 favorite after Meyer’s Patriots lost on Sunday. Maye is +400 and Allen is all the way up to +500. The biggest problem for Allen is that the Patriots are still favored to win the AFC East, and a wild-card quarterback hasn’t won an MVP since 2008. But watching Allen play every week, it’s hard not to believe he deserves another MVP award.
Josh Allen led the Bills to a blowout win over the Patriots, which greatly improved his MVP odds. (Photo by Sarah Steele/Getty Images)
(Sarah Steele via Getty Images)
Packers Super Bowl odds changes
It’s no surprise that the Packers’ Super Bowl odds have gotten worse since last week. They lost to the Broncos by 2.5 points, making the road to winning the NFC North that much tougher, and they saw defensive end Micah Parsons suffer a season-ending torn ACL.
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The Packers’ odds to win the Super Bowl were +800 last week, but they’ve jumped to +1,400 this week. This shouldn’t be a big surprise. Losing Parsons, along with a number of other key injuries such as Tucker Kraft’s knee injury, is a major obstacle to the Packers’ Super Bowl bid. The Packers are barely favored to win the NFC North anymore.
Packers still favored by Bears
Saturday night’s game between the Packers and Bears will decide the NFC North title. Oddsmakers like the Packers’ chances, even on the road.
The Packers are 1.5 points ahead on the road in Chicago. They are also likely to win the division at -105 odds, while the Bears are at +110. The Packers are shorthanded, but there’s still enough confidence that they can beat the Bears on Saturday and advance into the division.
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Seahawks at home disadvantage
One of the NFL’s best games of the season had an interesting point spread.
The 11-3 Rams will face the 11-3 Seahawks on Thursday night in what amounts to an NFC West championship game, with the Rams as the road favorite. Seattle’s score is -1. The Rams beat Seattle 21-19 on Nov. 16, but the Seahawks missed a long shot as time expired. Sam Darnold was intercepted four times in that game. Darnold also struggled against the Rams in the playoffs last season with the Vikings. That could be a factor that puts Seattle at a disadvantage. The Rams remain Super Bowl favorites, but that could change if Seattle pulls off a (very small) upset on Thursday.
Ravens beat Patriots 11-3
There isn’t a lot of faith in the Patriots in the betting markets.
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The Patriots fell to the Bills at home last week, losing by a huge margin. The Patriots, now 11-3, take on the 7-7 Ravens on the road this week, a team that has been disappointing all season and is a field goal underdog. That may reflect the Ravens’ belief in a comeback after a 24-0 win over Cincinnati last week. But the Patriots’ odds rarely match their record this season. The Patriots are still -250 points to win the AFC East, though that could change significantly if they lose to the Ravens and the Bills beat the Browns by 10 points.