Obviously, getting the top seed in every conference is a big advantage.
In a 14-team format, only one team from each conference gets a wild-card weekend break. The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are both at home in the divisional round, and both played on Saturday and had an extra day of rest than their opponents in the divisional championship game. For their part, the Seahawks face the Rams, who beat the Bears in overtime in the cold Sunday night to advance.
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The stadiums of Denver and Seattle will host two exciting games for a spot in Super Bowl X.
Rashid Shaheed scores the first touchdown of the Seattle Seahawks’ divisional round victory. (Photo by Sean M. Hafey/Getty Images)
(Sean M. Hafey, Getty Images)
AFC Championship
(2) New England Patriots vs. (1) Denver Broncos (3 p.m. ET, CBS)
Why the Patriots can win
The Patriots have no glaring weaknesses. Maybe they don’t have great pass catchers, but quarterback Derek Meyer makes up for it. New England ranks eighth in yards allowed and third in yards gained. The Patriots’ defense got better in the playoffs, beating the Chargers in the wild-card round and holding C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense to five turnovers in the divisional-round victory. Mike Vrabel is the favorite to win the NFL Coach of the Year award, which will be his second time winning the award. The Patriots are 14-3, and it’s not just because of the schedule, which is really easy. They have an MVP favorite at quarterback, a great coach, and have improved their talent on both sides of the ball with a great offseason. Including the playoffs, the Patriots have won 14 of their last 15 games. Even though New England isn’t expected to be one of the best teams in the NFL this season, they’re in the Final Four for a reason.
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Why the Broncos can win
Preparations for the AFC Championship Game will see Jarrett Stidham take over for Bo Nix, who suffered a broken ankle late in Denver’s divisional round victory that ended the remainder of the season. Although the Knicks are having a good season, they are not a quarterback-centric team. The Broncos’ defense was the focal point, forcing five turnovers in the divisional round against the Buffalo Bills. The Broncos are rushing the quarterback at an elite level. They led the NFL with 68 sacks during the regular season. They are also deep at cornerback. They can keep the game low-scoring and maybe use turnovers to create some big plays to help the offense. The Broncos will have to play differently than they have all season. They need to run the ball well, which has not been easy for them this season. They gained just 70 yards on 22 carries against the Bills. If the running game works and the defense plays like it has for much of the season, the Broncos will be in the game at the end of the game. That’s all they can ask for.
Who has juice in it?
It’s hard to argue with a team that found itself with a quarterback who was done for the season so soon after a divisional round win. Sean Payton is a good coach, and while there will be immediate disappointment in losing Bo Nix to ankle surgery, by Sunday he will have the Broncos ready to rally around Stidham and consider an upset. Still, they will know the odds are stacked against them. It’s hard to find a quarterback more unbalanced in the postseason than Stidham, who has four career starts and hasn’t thrown a pass in the past two regular seasons, and Derek Meyer, who is likely to be the NFL MVP this season. There’s no way the Patriots can expect to face their backup quarterback at the start of the divisional round, but it certainly makes the road to the Super Bowl that much easier. Suddenly, the Patriots should feel very confident about making it to the Super Bowl for the first time since Tom Brady was at quarterback.
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NFC Championship Game
(5) Los Angeles Rams vs. (1) Seattle Seahawks (6:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
Why the Rams can win
The Rams enjoyed a miraculous comeback from Seattle in Week 16, capped by a controversial two-point conversion as a highlight after sweeping the Seahawks in the regular season. In the first, they forced Sam Darnold to have his worst game of the season with four interceptions (he hadn’t thrown more than two in any other game), and in the bubble they harassed Darnold again until Rasheed Shaheed’s punt return kept the Seahawks going, with Darnold making a big play in the game. In that Week 16 game, Matthew Stafford threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns in one of the few outstanding performances against the Seahawks defense all season. The Rams survived a tight game against the Bears in the divisional round and tied the game in overtime, and now faced a team they had beaten before and pulled off a historic comeback after defeating them a second time. There’s no debate as to why the Rams were able to win. They’ve beaten Seattle once, beating them in Game 2, only to be defeated by one of the greatest rallies in Seahawks history.
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Why the Seahawks can win
Seattle has been a good team all season, but lately the Seahawks seem to be on another level. Since a come-from-behind win over the Rams in Week 16, they’ve outscored the Panthers 27-10, then beat the 49ers 13-3 in Week 18 and 41-6 in the divisional round. That’s four straight wins against playoff teams. The dominant defense gave up 139, 173 and 236 yards in the past three games. If the defense can be that good, it won’t matter as much that Sam Darnold isn’t 100 percent. Darnold is dealing with an oblique injury, but he performed well in Saturday’s game. He wasn’t asked to do much either, gaining 124 yards on just 17 attempts. The run game was also excellent, with 175 yards at 5.3 yards per attempt. The Seahawks will face a tougher challenge in the NFC Championship Game, especially considering how good the Rams have been against them late in the season, and Darnold will need to perform well. The Seahawks will likely need him to throw more than 17 times in the NFC Championship Game. Darnold’s performance will be a big question.
Who has juice in it?
Which is better for motivation, a blowout in the first game of the playoffs or surviving two tight games, winning one in the final minute and the other in overtime? In the divisional round, the Seahawks beat the 49ers 41-6 after Shahid returned a kickoff for a touchdown. The Seahawks will be very confident considering how they’ve played all season and especially the last three weeks. Home field advantage only adds to that. The Rams came close to being eliminated twice, but beat the Panthers on a last-minute goal and then overcame Caleb Williams’ heroics to claim the victory in overtime in the divisional round. Each team has plenty of energy heading into the NFC Championship Game, even if they get there in different ways. This is a matchup between what almost everyone considers to be the two best teams in the NFL this season, and everyone is looking forward to it.