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After the first 16 games of this year’s NCAA March Madness men’s tournament, nearly all of the 36 million brackets have been eliminated, with remaining competitors hoping to overcome the ridiculous odds of submitting a perfect bracket in all 63 games.
The Texas Longhorns pulled off a first-day upset by defeating the BYU Cougars in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
NCAA photo via Getty Images
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An estimated 14,000 perfect brackets were preserved after the final game of the first day: No. 3 seed Gonzaga defeated No. 14 seed Kennesaw State 73-64.
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According to the NCAA, more than 36 million brackets were submitted in major online tournaments through ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, USA Today and Sports Illustrated.
After the first game, more than half of the team was eliminated, and No. 9 seed TCU defeated No. 8 seed Ohio State 66-64.
The number of perfect brackets was subsequently whittled down to about 2.4 million when No. 12 seed High Point upset No. 5 seed Wisconsin in the tournament’s first notable upset.
The perfect bracket dropped from 300,000 to 150,000 after No. 10 seed Texas A&M beat No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s, then plummeted to 30,000 the same night after No. 11 seed Texas beat No. 6 BYU in a big upset.
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What are the odds of perfect brackets?
If you flip a coin or guess each option, it’s 1 in 9.22 million. However, if contestants know college basketball and tournament teams, the odds of winning are still low, estimated at 1 in 120.2 billion, according to the NCAA. A perfect bracket requires contestants to correctly select 63 games.
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Those who submit brackets through the prediction market Kalshi can win $1 billion if they complete the near-impossible task with perfect brackets. The team with the highest score will receive a $1 million prize.
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According to the NCAA, no one can pick the perfect March Madness bracket. The person who came closest to success was an Ohio man who predicted 49 of 63 games correctly in 2019. His bracket was destroyed in the Sweet Sixteen round. Last year, the men’s bracket remained perfect through 42 games but was eliminated after third-seeded Kentucky defeated sixth-seeded Illinois, marking the first time since 2019 that a perfect men’s bracket lasted until the second round of the tournament. For women’s basketball, only 57 of the 67 games were played in one game.
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Which teams are the most popular?
Arizona is expected to win this year’s men’s tournament, with a betting line of +320, ahead of Michigan (+370) and Duke (+380), according to DraftKings. UConn has a -265 betting line in the women’s tournament.