By the time Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chairman ends in May 2026, he will have held the position for all or part of the three presidential administrations of Trump I, Biden and Trump II.
This feature is part of CoinDesk The Most Influential List of 2025.
Powell may be best remembered for his battles with President Donald Trump, who first nominated him to the chairmanship in early 2018 (President Biden re-nominated him for a four-year term in 2022), but his more lasting legacy may be his response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The influx of liquidity into the financial system may or may not ease the public’s pain during the lockdown, but it did help create one of the largest-ever rallies in financial assets, including cryptocurrencies, and trigger the first large-scale inflation in the U.S. since the 1970s.
As we approach the end of 2025, inflation, although well below its worst levels in 2022 (when it was near double-digit percentages for most of the year), continues to pose problems for monetary policymaking.
In fact, the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year on December 9-10 will be viewed as one of the most contentious in the central bank’s history. Signs of an economic slowdown, evidenced by recent weak jobs and manufacturing reports, typically prompt the Federal Reserve to move hastily and nearly unanimously to ease monetary policy by lowering the benchmark federal funds rate.
However, inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. In the weeks leading up to the meeting, several Fed policymakers have made no secret of their disagreements in public comments about further easing in December or even a rate cut in October.
Debate is good, but for decades the central bank has been a collegial body, and dissent from the larger opinion is so rare that even a single member voting against a policy decision makes headlines. Powell’s Fed’s final decision last week to cut interest rates again by 25 basis points drew opposition from three members, two of whom wanted to keep policy steady and one who wanted a 50 basis point cut.
Cryptocurrencies and the Federal Reserve – Up and Down
The connection between Fed policy and the cryptocurrency market is no secret: All things being equal, the prices of speculative assets like cryptocurrencies tend to perform better when monetary policy is loosened and tend to underperform when policy is tightened.
That was certainly the case in 2020, when the Fed under Powell launched a massive response to the COVID-19 pandemic, helping Bitcoin surge from about $3,000 to $65,000 13 months later.
The same will certainly be true in 2022, when the Fed under Powell finally gained confidence in inflation, raising the benchmark interest rate consecutively from 0.00% in January to 4% in December (the rate eventually peaked at 5.25% in mid-2023), and Bitcoin fell to $15,000 by the end of the year.
Bitcoin climbed to an all-time high above $125,000 this year, coinciding with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates twice. However, in recent weeks, prices began to collapse after Fed Chairman Powell said after the Fed’s October 28-29 meeting that market expectations for further easing by the central bank were too dovish.
The reaction was swift, with Bitcoin falling from above $113,000 to $107,000 one day later and to $80,000 three weeks later. At least since the rate cut was implemented in December, the economy has rebounded modestly. Despite this, the market has significantly lowered expectations for further policy easing in January.
keep going
Powell’s term as Fed chairman will end in May 2026, and President Trump has made it clear that he has no intention of renominating Powell. In fact, recent leaks from the White House suggest Trump may name Powell’s successor before the new year.
In effect, the move would create a shadow Fed chairman for Powell to deal with in the final months of his term.
While Powell’s term as Fed chairman is set to end next spring, he can remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors if he chooses. His fourteen-year term at the agency does not end until 2028.