March Madness 2026: Which No. 1 seed in the men’s NCAA tournament has the easiest road to the championship? Hint: It’s not Duke

One of the biggest debates heading into Selection Sunday was whether defending national champion Florida State should be the No. 1 seed in the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament. The Gators were upset by Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament semifinals and didn’t look that great in their win over Kentucky the day before.

Florida State struggled early in the season but bounced back and finished the regular season before reaching the SEC Tournament. Will that be enough to maintain control of the No. 1 seed?

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UConn lost to St. John’s in the Big East final earlier Sunday, easing concerns that the Gators could slip to the No. 2 seed. Instead, Florida State not only earned the No. 1 seed, but also landed in the South Region — the region that could offer the easiest path to the title, according to KenPom data analysis.

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Fourth-seeded Nebraska will be the easiest game in the second round for any No. 1 seed. The lower half of the South is also significantly weaker than any other region.

Florida’s toughest challenge may be a rematch of last year’s championship game against Houston in the South Regional finals — which will be played in Houston.

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[Click here for NCAA tournament printable bracket]

KenPom ratings for top seed in Eastern Conference

No. 1 Duke: No. 1 overall; No. 5 offense; No. 1 defense
No. 2 UConn: No. 10 overall; No. 22 offense; No. 23 defense
No. 3 Michigan State: No. 9 overall; No. 27 offense; No. 8 defense
No. 4 Kansas: No. 18 overall; No. 53 offense; No. 10 defense

KenPom, top seed in the Midwest region, scores

No. 1 Michigan: No. 2 overall; No. 4 offense; No. 3 defense
No. 2 Iowa State: No. 7 overall; No. 23 offense; No. 4 defense
No. 3 Virginia: No. 19 overall; No. 34 offense; No. 16 defense
No. 4 Alabama: No. 15 overall; No. 3 offense; No. 68 defense

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KenPom, the top seed in the Western Conference, scores

No. 1 Arizona: No. 3 overall; No. 7 offense; No. 2 defense
No. 2 Purdue: No. 8 overall; No. 2 offense; No. 39 defense
No. 3 Gonzaga: No. 11 overall; No. 30 offense; No. 11 defense
No. 4 Arkansas: No. 16 overall; No. 6 violation; No. 46 defense

KenPom ratings for top seed in South Division

No. 1 Florida State: No. 4 overall; No. 8 offense; No. 5 defense
No. 2 Houston: No. 6 overall; No. 17 offense; No. 6 defense
No. 3 Illinois: No. 5 overall; No. 1 offense; No. 27 defense
No. 4 Nebraska: No. 12 overall; No. 54 offense; No. 7 defense

KenPom’s ratings of 2026 tournament teams