Forgive our dust. It looks very chalky on many of our experts’ picks for women’s bracket chaos. But, in our defense, this is the year.
Teams are clearly in the upper echelon, led by undefeated UConn and UCLA, two teams undefeated in Big Ten play. They’re followed by SEC champion Texas, who posted a 3-1 win over fellow No. 1 seeds, and SEC runner-up South Carolina, a growing Final Four team in its own right.
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The Sacramento 2 rankings could get confusing, with UCLA, LSU and Duke occupying the top three spots. Meanwhile, things might be easier in Texas. Ultimately, No. 1 seeds won 11 of the last 13 championships, and 32 of the 43 overall championships.
With the NCAA Tournament starting this week and the top four teams, here are our preliminary power rankings.
(In brackets: region | seed | record | net ranking)
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1. Connecticut (Fort Worth 1 | No. 1 | 34-0 | 1)
The Huskies enter the tournament with the best record, best player (Sarah Strong), best coach (Gino Auriemma), WNBA lottery pick (Azie Forde) and decades of institutional experience. Losing the title to UConn, it never mattered which team ended up in the bracket. But with a bracket in place, their biggest challenger will be Vanderbilt in the Elite Eight if the Commodores advance. South Carolina is No. 1 this side of UConn.
2. Texas (Fort Worth 3 | 1st | 31-3 | 4)
The Longhorns are a well-rounded team led by standout two-way fifth-year point guard Rori Harmon and player of the year contender Madison Booker. Their center dominates the paint and they prefer to score, with an effective field goal percentage of 53.2%. On-field performance was 10 percent better than the Division I average, according to CBB Analytics.
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Texas, one of the deepest teams in the field along with UConn, defeated South Carolina to capture the SEC Championship, slaying the SEC dragon to become a true No. 3 seed and earn a spot in the Fort Worth Super Regional. Home field advantage will benefit.
3. UCLA (Sacramento 2 | No. 1 | 31-1 | 2)
The Bruins, perhaps the most experienced team in the country with six seniors, have lost just one game all year: a 76-65 loss to Texas in the semifinals of the Players Era Tournament in Las Vegas in November. UCLA was largely uncompetitive here but made it through the Big Ten schedule unscathed. They also have the best center in the country in 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts, a WNBA lottery pick.
4. Louisiana State University (Sacramento 2 | No. 2 | 27-5 | 5)
The Tigers have one of the most potent offenses in NCAA Division I history, boasting star backs in Flau’jae Johnson, Mikaylah Williams, MiLayshia Fulwiley and Jada Richard. When they work together, they are unstoppable. The first test may have been in the Sweet 16 against Duke, a team they beat on the non-conference slate, but a few months later they’re already further along.
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5. South Carolina (Sacramento 4 | 2nd | 31-3 | 3)
The Gamecocks haven’t missed a Final Four since 2019, which was held before the COVID-19 pandemic. Their drop in the rankings is entirely due to being on the same side as UConn, which has a deeper roster than Columbia does.
Senior guard Raven Johnson won SEC Defensive Player of the Year, leading the team back to the top 10 in defensive efficiency. She is head coach Dawn Staley’s go-to player in tight games.
Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks have some extra momentum heading into March after losing to Texas in the SEC Championship Game. (Photo by Sean Redford/Getty Images)
(Sean Redford via Getty Images)
6. Duke (Sacramento 2 | 3rd | 24-8 | 8)
This area is stacked with all caps, which probably makes it the most confusing area in the area. Duke bounced back from a 3-6 non-conference start to emerge virtually unscathed in the ACC. Still, since the ACC has yet to play the role of the SEC or Big Ten, they remain a huge unknown.
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Kara Lawson’s unit is always built on defense; at times, it falters in key spots, but when it’s at its best, it could stifle an LSU or UCLA offense. Toby Fournier is the team’s go-to forward (17.3 points per game), and the offense often takes the form of senior guard Taina Mair.
7. Louisville (Fort Worth 3 | 3rd | 27-7 | 11)
Louisville is a team that can sneak up on a guy. The Cardinals’ vision of being an offense by committee has worked so far, but when it comes time to find the primary mover, there may be an opponent. They ranked in the top 15 in net rating (25.6) and nearly defeated Duke in the ACC Tournament title game.
Head coach Jeff Walz always puts his team in a good position. They are in the top four seedings for the first time since 2022. Given Texas’ berth, the ceiling is likely the Elite Eight, but beating a smaller Michigan team is a strong possibility.
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8. Iowa State (Sacramento 4 | 2nd | 26-6 | 10)
The Hawkeyes once again host an opening weekend game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, which is a huge advantage that could propel them deep into March. A pair of key contributors from the Final Four team, Hannah Stuelke, and sophomore Ava Heiden, an up-and-coming center in a historically well-developed program, could cause trouble for South Carolina if they meet in the Elite Eight.
This will be a rematch of the 2023 Final Four upset by Iowa State and the 2024 national championship game win by South Carolina.
Iowa State is back as the tournament host and has a good chance to make a deep tournament run. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
(Michael Hickey via Getty Images)
9. Michigan State (Fort Worth 3 | 2nd | 25-6 | 6)
The Wolverines have come close to knocking off their best team this season, losing by three points to UCLA, UConn and Vanderbilt. The sophomore trio of Olivia Olson, Syla Swords and Mila Holloway form a potent offensive force, and their youthful fearlessness could be their asset.
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But the Wolverines struggled to end the season with a smaller team. There was no clear center to control the paint, forcing the guards to bring out their best to create an upset.
10. Vanderbilt (Fort Worth 1 | No. 2 | 27-4 | 7)
Launching one of the best and most prolific scorers in the country can take a program far, and Vanderbilt’s Mikayla Blacks has done just that. She led the Commodores in scoring in all five games, three of which were non-conference games. Slowing Blake down was key to ejecting Vanderbilt and dropping them among contenders because the defense could lock down that. But the real reason the Commodores are so far behind is that it’s hard to imagine them beating a deep UConn team, especially after their issues with Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament cost them a shot at the No. 1 seed entirely.
11. TCU (Sacramento 4 | 3rd | 29-5 | 12)
Mark Campbell uses the transfer portal well every season to build a competitive team with a pro pick-and-roll offense. Olivia Miles, a projected WNBA lottery pick, led the way inside with Marta Suarez.
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The Horned Frogs’ offense continues to get better, and after the season ended a year ago, plus West Virginia suddenly clinched the Big 12 Championship, they’ll be hungry. That loss also pushed TCU into the true seeding line, missing out on a Fort Worth Regional berth that would have kept them ahead of the Final Four.
12. Oklahoma State (Sacramento 4 | 4th | 24-7 | 13)
The Sooners are running through Raegan Beers in the paint and freshman Aaliyah Chavez at point guard. If Chavez steps down, they will be in trouble. Chavez scored 15 of his 26 points in overtime against South Carolina, handing the Gamecocks their only regular-season loss of the season. So they already have a blueprint to beat South Carolina if the Sweet 16 matchup goes through.
13. West Virginia (Fort Worth 3 | 4th | 27-6 | 18)
Welcome West Virginia back to hosting duties. The Mountaineers have had a special season, their most winning season since 2014 and their third-most winning season since at least 2009-10. They like to keep the pressure up, and if they meet Texas in the Sweet 16, it will be an interesting game.
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The Mountaineers beat Duke early in the season and had only five players available after six players were ejected in the first half. That earned them the nickname “The Greenbrier Five,” and a sense of belief that could carry them deep into March.
14. Minnesota (Sacramento 2 | 4th | 22-8 | 9)
The Golden Gophers are flying under the radar in a Big Ten conference dominated by UCLA, followed by established programs like Iowa State and Michigan State. This is their first tournament appearance since 2018 and first time hosting a tournament since 2005. The knock against Minnesota for most of the schedule was that they lacked a big win; then beat Iowa State and Ohio State in the regular season. Five players averaged double figures, including Grace Grocholski, who shot 42.3% from three-point range.
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15. North Carolina (Fort Worth 1 | 4th | 23-8 | 14)
UNC leads the ACC in 3-point field goal percentage and plays solid defense, matching Duke in the regular season and nearly beating Louisville in the ACC Tournament semifinals. If freshman Nyla Brooks, UCLA transfer Elina Aarnisalo and Lani Grant all shoot well, they could meet UConn in the Sweet 16.
16. Kentucky (Fort Worth 3 | 5th | 23-10 | 16)
The SEC was so good that Kentucky, a team that was about to earn a top 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, had to play on the first day of the SEC Tournament. Ultimately, the daily pace of play cost them a loss to South Carolina. Clara Strack is a versatile forward with a nasty turnaround jumper, and transfer Tonie Morgan is one of the best point guards in the country. With standout center Teonni Key missing the game due to injury, the Wildcats ended up playing deeper on the SEC line.