March Madness 2026: 4 darkhorse candidates capable of making a deep NCAA tournament run

Whether it’s Cameron Boozer and Duke, or the Big 12 or even Florida State’s trio, this season’s NCAA tournament roster is incredibly top-heavy.

But what about the rest of the field? Even though our entire Final Four in last year’s tournament consisted of No. 1 seeds, there’s no reason to think that will happen again this spring. The truth is, there are plenty of legitimate dark horse candidates capable of making big strides.

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Here are the top dark horse candidates from each region heading to Indianapolis for the NCAA Tournament.

East: No. 7 UCLA

First game: No. 10 University of Central Florida

While UCLA didn’t reach the Big Ten Championship Game, the Bruins have bounced back in recent weeks after a rough start to the season.

UCLA has won six of its past eight games, three of which came against top-10 opponents. Back in mid-February, the Bruins beat Illinois State in overtime, beat Nebraska by 20 points, and then beat Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament, a key win for the program. Donwan Dent, who missed last week with a calf injury, should be available for the NCAA tournament after a strong second half of the season. He also had his first-ever triple-double in the Big Ten Conference Championship this spring.

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The Bruins look nothing like the team they were just a few months ago, when they were 12-6 and just 4-3 in the Big Ten in mid-January. They look like contenders who figured it out at the right time. But the key to making a deep run was beating UConn in the second round. While it’s not impossible, it’s certainly not easy. The Huskies dominated the Big East Conference before falling to St. John’s in the championship game.

But if UCLA goes forward and makes it through opening weekend unscathed with plenty of momentum, a matchup with Duke is a real possibility.

West: No. 7 Miami

First game: 10 Missouri

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Okay, let’s get this out of the way first. The Hurricanes have to play their NCAA tournament opener against Missouri State in St. Louis, which is essentially just a road game. No. 2 Purdue, fresh off a victory over Michigan in the Big Ten championship game, was waiting on the other side of the court.

But ignore those two key pieces of information, the Hurricanes have been great of late and the program has completely transformed in Jay Lucas’ second year at the helm. They finished third in SEC play, picking up several key wins along the way, including against Louisville in the NCAA tournament and last month against North Carolina. All but one of their four ACC regular-season losses came on one possession. Virginia rallied in the second half, only to be beaten by a late free throw.

Although the Hurricanes were eliminated by Virginia in the ACC semifinals, the team has been playing much better lately and has been looking for a way to at least hang on late in games, if nothing else. If the Hurricanes want to get over their first weekend woes, going up against a tough Missouri team and the Boilermakers (if they get there) will be crucial. But who knows how far Miami can actually go if that’s done.

South: No. 5 Vanderbilt

First game: No. 12 McNeese

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The Commodores proved last week in Nashville that they belong in the conversation. They’re coming off an impressive season that saw them advance to the SEC title game for the first time since 2012 with a double-digit victory over Florida State. While the Commodores didn’t win a championship, they maintained their status in the SEC.

Vanderbilt started with a 16-game winning streak, tying the best start in program history, and went 26-8 on the year, good for fourth in the SEC, after playing 17 Quad 1 opponents, one of the most in the country. The Commodores are averaging more than 88 points per game, nearly 20 points behind guard Tyler Tanner, and they rank 13th in the NET rankings. That’s the second-highest ranking among SEC schools, behind only Florida State.

While neither McNeese nor Nebraska are easy opponents, a second weekend game is very feasible for Vanderbilt. That could set us up for a third matchup with the region’s top-seeded Gators in the Sweet 16. The first time these two teams met, Florida won by just four points. If things continue the way they have been, Vanderbilt may soon find itself just one win away from making the Final Four.

Midwest: 3rd Virginia

First game: No. 14 Wright State University

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Virginia is a No. 3 seed and thus barely counts as a “dark horse” candidate. But the Cavaliers dominated the ACC, and did it mostly in Duke’s shadow.

Virginia, led by first-year head coach Ryan Odom, went 27-4 in the regular season and finished second in the league. They’ve lost just three times in conference play, one of which was a triple-overtime game against Virginia Tech last December. The worst loss was a 26-point loss to Duke last month, but luckily the Blue Devils are in another region and out of the running. However, Virginia absolutely bounced back from it and beat Duke by five points in the ACC Championship Game.

This is a very good team, ranked 12th in the NET rankings and seventh nationally in offensive efficiency. Although the Cavaliers haven’t won a tournament since Tony Bennett won the national title in 2019, they have been in the lead, led by Thijs De Ridder who is averaging 5.5 points and 6.2 rebounds per game.

Perhaps most important, however, is where the Cavaliers start. They will play No. 14 Wright State on Friday and then can play Tennessee or play the winner of the play-in game to make a trip to the Sweet 16. No. 2 Iowa State, while a good team, is definitely beatable in their half. Don’t be surprised if Virginia finds a way to stay in the mix for a week or so, as it has all season.