Will the NIL and transfer portal reduce upsets in the NCAA Tournament?
Ultimately, we don’t have enough information to make a decision on this. Our college teams have only been able to pay players for a few years, and name, image and likeness rules are constantly evolving. But last year was one of the most chalky tournaments we’ve ever seen, with just four upsets total (11-6, using the definition of a team beating another team five seed lines or more ahead of them). There were seven games in the first round the year before, but only two games in the subsequent rounds.
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There’s an argument to be made that the system encourages players who excel at mid-major schools to transfer to power conference schools with larger NIL budgets. While these players are experienced and ready to lead an NCAA tournament team, they are doing so for a team that already has a ton of talent.
If troubles become fewer and farther between, it means that every trouble is more precious. Nicole Auerbach and John Fender These developments are discussed along with the teams that should be wary of in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 Louisville
Fender chose this, Auerbach did not. he pointed Brian Hodgson A coaching star, he could help the Cavaliers against a bruising, inconsistent Louisville team.
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“This is a team with great guard play,” Finta said. “Wes Ennisfor those who don’t know, you can score directly, Isaiah Nelson as well as. I think their speed, their passing ability is going to cause some problems for Louisville. “
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 North Carolina
Finta and Auerbach both like the Rams in this one. Without Caleb Wilson a concern for the Tar Heels, VCU can continue the tradition of Atlantic 10 teams thriving in the NCAA tournament.
Finta particularly likes the head coach Phil Martelli Jr. Take it to the Rams.
“Every time I see an upset candidate, I say ‘Well, are there multiple ways they can hit a three-pointer?’ And they (VCU) did that,” Fender said.
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No. 14 University of Pennsylvania vs. No. 3 University of Illinois
Auerbach is willing to go further than Finta at this point because of T.J. Ball, the small forward who dropped 44 points in the Ivy League Championship Game.
She also pointed out Fran McCaffreywho never got past his first weekend at Iowa State but is now leading his alma mater.
“Isn’t it a big deal to face a Big Ten team that he’s familiar with at Illinois that’s been inconsistent and lost three of five games before we got to the NCAA tournament,” Auerbach said. “It’s an odd choice, but listen, it’s going to create so much chaos in the Southland.” I’m always for chaos. “
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No. 10 Santa Clara vs. No. 7 Kentucky
While the five-seed rule isn’t technically broken, the name-worthiness of these two projects does paint a David and Goliath picture. Kentucky is one of the most accomplished programs in college basketball history, and Santa Clara is making its first tournament appearance since Steve Nash Attack launched in 1996.
However, both Auerbach and Finta like the Broncos against a Wildcats team that has been inconsistent throughout the season.