A brief clip of Vladimir Putin delivering a rather mundane holiday greeting has become an unexpected turning point in his decades-long rule — and sources say it could mark the beginning of his downfall.
The Russian president’s health has long been so closely guarded that it is effectively considered a state secret, with officials risking treason charges if they dare reveal any information about his health.
That’s why Russians were shocked when an unedited video of Putin was shared on the Kremlin’s own Telegram channel last week, showing him coughing and choking over his words. News of the revealing clip spread quickly, although it was quickly replaced by a sanitized version.
In the video, Putin was paying tribute to Russian women to mark International Women’s Day when he began to cough, suddenly pointed to his throat, grimaced in pain and said: “It hurts.” It was the most pathetic image the Russian leader has ever seen in the public during his 25-year rule. The macho leader known for shirtless horseback riding, judo photoshoots and ice hockey was suddenly transformed into a stammering old man.
While many believed those responsible for the video would be punished quickly, Putin’s spokesman downplayed the impact of the video, calling it a “mistake” that would not happen again.
But when The Daily Beast asked Putin’s former advisers, national treason lawyers, former lawmakers and leading corruption investigators whether the leak was simply a “mistake,” they had very different views.
Several government agencies are tasked with ensuring that such mistakes do not occur, including the presidential palace and the security services.
“There are at least two towers in the Kremlin responsible for Putin’s public appearances; one information tower is run by a long-time propaganda director, and the other is responsible for Putin’s image,” Transparency International Russia board member Ilya Shumanov told The Daily Beast.
Putin has been cultivating an image of masculinity for years, thanks to publicity stunts in which he is often photographed showing off judo moves or competing in other sports. /Alexey Druzhnin/AFP/Getty
“It’s possible that the towers are at war, and we’re seeing ongoing interagency tensions, arrests of senior bureaucrats, generals, military commanders. One tower could be a sign that the other tower is unable to control Putin.”
This internal fighting is likely to intensify given Putin’s declining approval ratings. U.S. actions in Venezuela and Iran only make the traditional strongman leader look helpless as the Kremlin watches long-time allies be toppled.
“In this new world, Putin has failed to fulfill his responsibility by taking no action to help his closest partners such as Maduro and Khamenei,” Schumanov told The Daily Beast.
The Russian president has stayed out of the public eye in recent days and has been holding virtual meetings. /Contributors/Getty Images
In this new world, Donald Trump is on every front page and Putin is not even mentioned, confusing the Russian leadership. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov all but admitted as much in candid comments last week, telling reporters: “We are rapidly losing propaganda tools abroad, especially in neighboring countries.”
After the uproar over the leaked video, Putin canceled a planned trip to Astana and meetings with the leaders of Kazakhstan and Belarus from March 11 to 13, and he has not appeared in public since March 8. In video of Putin’s meeting with the government last week, his voice sounded quiet and weak. As of Friday afternoon, the Kremlin’s official Telegram channel had just 13,000 views.
When no one knew who Putin was, a group of political advisers worked hard to create an image of a taciturn strongman. Marat Gelman, a member of this group, was asked how his tough-guy image suddenly transformed into an old man. “People’s interest in Putin plummeted, and coverage of him was undermined by ignoring him. But now, people can’t help but watch videos of poor Putin — a ploy by the Kremlin to try to revive interest in a coughing Putin and his politics,” Gelman told The Daily Beast.
In recent weeks, Donald Trump has taken center stage in international affairs with his unpredictable actions, while Putin appears to have receded into the background. /Kevin Lamarck/Reuters
Putin’s support among Russia’s young people has been declining over the past five years. According to the latest social research from the Levada Center, only 18% of Russians under the age of 24 support Putin as president; 46% of women disagree. Russian news site Afisha Daily says Russian hip-hop artist Pasha Technique is more popular than Putin on Russian Wikipedia report January.
“He is an old man who demands that every young woman have three children, but that does not increase the birth rate. Russia’s total fertility rate has dropped to about 1.37-1.41 children per woman this year,” Tatyana, a Moscow obstetrician and gynecologist, told The Daily Beast in an interview. “If anyone in the Kremlin thinks that women will like Putin more if they see him coughing, they are wrong.”
Prominent Russian lawyer Ivan Pavlov said he would not be surprised if someone soon faces treason charges over the leaked video. He and his team specialize in defending Russians accused of leaking state secrets.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) attends a ceremony before the opening ceremony of the 2015 Night Hockey League new season. / Ria Novosti / Reuters
“Last year alone, our organization Pervy Otdel recorded 486 cases of people charged with treason, espionage and extremism, which is the highest number to date,” Pavlov told The Daily Beast. “If the Kremlin wanted to boost Putin’s popularity, they would publish something like him catching falling glass. Everything about him is either secret or sacred. This mistake, like a leaked video, can ruin someone’s career or be seen as treason – and we may see that soon.”
Gennady Gudkov, a former member of the Russian parliament, pointed out that shortly before Putin was undermined by his own entourage, the Kremlin’s polling organization VTsIOM conducted a spontaneous poll: only 32.1% of respondents said they would trustworthy Putin.
“These spontaneous polls always reveal more truth — and his image makers see that,” Gudkov told The Daily Beast. “Of course, the Kremlin spiders will eat each other, but they don’t have to do much.”