A record snow drought is plaguing the American West, leaving some of the most water-scarce states facing reduced water resources and increased fire risks in the dry months ahead.
Snowpack across the West is about one-third what it is this time of year, according to measurements from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, prompting widespread concern among experts and water managers that several key basins will be severely impacted for the rest of the year.
Oregon, Colorado and Utah all reported their lowest statewide snowfall records since the early 1980s.
In a discussion of weather and conditions shared on his website last week, climate scientist Daniel Swain said that “snowpack is essentially the worst on record for this time of year in at least parts of the western U.S. states,” calling the record-breaking warmth that preceded it “shocking.”
Related: Rare snowfall hits southern United States, millions of people face severe cold
An extremely warm winter exacerbated the severe conditions, with unseasonable weather breaking records across the region, according to federal forecasters.
“I’ve never seen a winter like this before,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, who has worked in Colorado for nearly 40 years. “This pattern we’re in is so persistent.”
The snowpack is a vital water source, feeding basins that millions of people depend on, vast agricultural centers and already stressed ecosystems. On February 1, 91% of weather stations across the West measured below the median snow water content, an important measure of how much melt water is available.
Shockingly low water levels are adding pressure to ongoing emergency negotiations over the future of the Colorado River. The 1,450-mile (2,300-kilometer) waterway winds its way through the American West, providing water to some 40 million people in seven states, 5.5 million acres (2.23 million hectares) of farmland, dozens of tribes and parts of Mexico.
About 80% of river supplies are used for agriculture, including water–Intensive crops such as alfalfa and hay are used as livestock feed.
As the resource becomes increasingly scarce, representatives of countries that rely on its flows remain deadlocked over how to manage the endangered basin. Chronic overuse and mounting pressure from the climate crisis have created a one-two punch that has plunged the system into crisis.
Negotiators face a weekend deadline before the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation can implement its own plan, an outcome expected to lead to litigation and more uncertainty. But experts say the challenging conditions are their own deadline, saying traffic is extremely low and urgent action is needed.
The Colorado River water supply outlook for February is the worst in more than three decades. More than two-thirds of the river water is supplied by mountain snow.
“The river will not wait for process or politics,” said Matt Rice, Southwest regional director for the conservation group American Rivers.
Experts say the snow drought could also start wildfire season early. Daniel McEvoy, a researcher at the Western Regional Climate Center, said spring and summer snowpack disappeared earlier than average, exposing the ground to warmer weather and drying out soil and vegetation more quickly.
Warm temperatures create an elevation gradient in snow cover. There is snow at higher elevations, but melted or non-existent at lower elevations. A lack of snowpack can cause landscapes to dry out prematurely, leading to longer fire seasons or less efficient runoff when snow melts.
“It was very warm, especially in December, and the snow was only falling on the highest parts of the mountains,” McEvoy said. “Then we got into January and it got very dry and stayed warm pretty much everywhere for the last three to four weeks.”
Meteorologists expect wetter, cooler weather and some snow in the West this week, so this could be the peak of the snow drought. But many areas will still be warmer than usual, and scientists are optimistic that the snowfall will be enough.
“I don’t think we’re going to get back to average or anywhere near that,” said Lars Schumacher, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Colorado State University and Colorado State climatologist. “But if the deficit does become more active, at least we can reduce it a little bit.”
Reporting by the Associated Press