Bitcoin has largely ignored macro signals that should have supported it. The U.S. CPI cooled to 2.7% in December, strengthening expectations for an interest rate cut, but Bitcoin failed to respond. Instead of attracting new capital, prices stagnated while money turned elsewhere.
This disconnect is why Bitcoin bear market talk has resurfaced.
Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer recently warned that Bitcoin may have ended its latest four-year cycle in October, both in terms of price and timing. On-chain and market data since then have increasingly supported this view.
Multiple independent indicators are now pointing to the same conclusion: capital is retreating, belief holders are selling, and Bitcoin is absorbing risk without real demand.
Stablecoin inflows often act as dry powder for cryptocurrency rallies. That fuel is gone.
Total exchange inflows of ERC-20 stablecoins peaked at approximately 10.2 billion on August 14. By December 24, inflows had dropped to approximately 1.06 billion, a drop of nearly 90%.
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The peak inflows in August came just before Bitcoin topped $125,000 in October, and Timmer believes the same period may have been a cycle top.
https://twitter.com/timmerfidelity/status/2001706526256566473?s=46&t=H-MrTuNvkcokgvCx6TS0Dg
Since then, new capital has failed to flow back, reinforcing the idea that distribution replaces accumulation after the peak.
After October, the convicts behaved differently.
The change in the net position of long-term Bitcoin holders turned negative shortly after the cycle high. The sell-off has accelerated from approximately 16,500 BTC per day in late October to approximately 279,000 BTC as of late. This means that daily delivery pressure has increased by more than 1,500%.
This is directly consistent with Timmer’s argument that the four-year halving cycle phase may end in October. Long-term holders appear to agree, reducing their exposure rather than defending the price.
Bitcoin dominance has returned to 57-59%, but this is not a risk-taking signal.
Capital did not move to Bitcoin after CPI softened. Instead, it flows into traditional hedges. Silver is up more than 120% over the past year, while gold is up about 65%. Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency market has lagged significantly.
https://twitter.com/dirksdegen/status/2003756566047268890?s=46&t=H-MrTuNvkcokgvCx6TS0Dg
This shift reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s rise in dominance is driven not by a new appetite for risk, but by capital retreating to the relative safety of the cryptocurrency space.
This sentiment was echoed in exclusive market commentary shared with BeInCrypto by NoOnes founder and CEO Ray Youssef, who highlighted why gold leads the devaluation trade in 2025 while Bitcoin remains range-bound.
“While gold is clearly likely to win the depreciation trade in terms of price performance in 2025, this comparison masks a more nuanced market reality. Gold’s recent all-time highs, with year-to-date gains of 67%, reflect a classic defensive investor positioning as capital seeks certainty in a market environment defined by fiscal excess, geopolitical tensions and macro policy uncertainty. Increased central bank accumulation, a weaker dollar and persistent inflation risks reinforce gold’s role as the market’s preferred defensive asset,” he said.
Yusuf added that Bitcoin’s behavior this year is very different from the digital gold narrative.
“Bitcoin, in contrast, has recently failed to deliver on the hedge narrative. The asset does not trade like digital gold in 2025 due to its increased sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. Bitcoin’s rise is now related to liquidity expansion, sovereign policy clarity and risk sentiment, not just currency depreciation,” he emphasized.
Major shareholders also began to retreat.
The number of Bitcoin addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC has dropped to 88 from 92 in early December. This decline is accompanied by falling prices rather than accumulation.
These addresses typically represent institutional-sized participants. Their decline is further evidence that smart money is not actively preparing for the upside.
Bitcoin is still trading below the 365-day moving average near $102,000, a level that was last seen outright at the start of the 2022 bear market.
This moving average acts as technical and psychological support. Failure to reclaim it suggests the market has shifted away from trend continuation and toward regime risk. If the price remains below that level, historical precedent suggests that traders’ actual price range will fall further to around $72,000.
https://twitter.com/cryptoquant_com/status/1986080638303084688?s=46&t=H-MrTuNvkcokgvCx6TS0Dg
Collectively, these signals support Timmer’s warning that Bitcoin may already be in a bear market phase or close to it, even if the price has not fully priced this in yet. Capital has dried up, belief holders are selling, defensive dominance is rising, and macro relief is being ignored.
That said, not all long-term cyclical support has been broken. What follows are these counter-signals, and the exact levels that determine whether this becomes a full-blown bear market or a longer-term transition.
Despite growing evidence that Bitcoin is headed for a bear market, two long-term cyclical indicators remain against confirming a structural collapse.
Furthermore, one of the reasons why the Bitcoin bear case remains unresolved is how the market interprets the CPI slowdown. While cooling inflation typically benefits risk assets, the current reaction suggests investors are prioritizing safety and liquidity over growth.
This does not mean that the CPI signal is wrong. This may simply be premature, as historically Bitcoin has reacted later than traditional hedging tools once liquidity expectations have fully translated into capital flows.
These and the indicators we discuss next do not negate the bearish signals discussed above. But they explain why this phase may still resolve as a long-term transition rather than a full bear market cycle.
One of Bitcoin’s most reliable cycle indicators, the Pi Cycle Top, has yet to flash a peak signal. This indicator compares the 111-day moving average to the 350-day moving average multiplied by two.
Historically, when these two lines cross, Bitcoin is close to or at a major cycle top.
As of now, the two lines are still far apart. This suggests that even after the October highs, Bitcoin is not in an overheated or euphoric phase.
This contradicts the thinking put forward by Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer, who noted that the October peak of nearly $125,000 was consistent with previous cycle timing.
In past cycles, true bear markets began after clear Pi cycle confirmation. The signal is still not present.
The second and more direct objection is structural. Bitcoin is still trading close to its 2-year simple moving average around $82,800.
This level has served as a long-term trend breakpoint for Bitcoin many times. Historically, monthly closes above the 2-year moving average signal cycle survival.
Sustained closes below it mark a deep bear market phase.
So far, Bitcoin has not confirmed a monthly close below this line.
This makes December’s monthly close critical. If Bitcoin remains above $82,800 by the end of the year, the market may still be in a late-cycle transition phase rather than a confirmed Bitcoin bear market.
https://twitter.com/alphractal/status/2000750853834031181?s=46&t=H-MrTuNvkcokgvCx6TS0Dg
This result leaves open the possibility that 2026 reflects a delayed rise rather than a prolonged decline.
However, if December closes significantly below the 2-year moving average, Timmer’s downside forecast of the $65,000 to $75,000 range would find structural support.
The bearish framework also has significant failure levels. Recovering the 365-day moving average near $102,000 would significantly weaken the bear case thesis. This is consistent with Tom Lee’s year-end Bitcoin price prediction.
A breakout of this level would mark the start of a bear market in 2022 and, if restored, would signal new trend strength.
Simply put:
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December close above $82,800: Transition phase remains intact
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Monthly fall below $82,800: Bear market risk escalates
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Back above $102,000: Bullish structure begins to rebuild
Currently, Bitcoin is stuck between a firm sell-off and long-term cyclical support. The market hasn’t confirmed strength, but it hasn’t completely broken out either.
December’s closing price will determine which narrative carries over into 2026.
Read the original article Has Bitcoin entered a bear market? Fidelity CEO Ananda Banerjee raised concerns at beincrypto.com