Author: Heejin Kim and Sebin Choi
SEOUL (Reuters) – A U.S. and Israeli military strike on Iran will reinforce North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s nuclear ambitions, experts and former officials said, as attention focuses on whether he might return to talks with President Donald Trump.
Negotiations over nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles over Pyongyang, which is subject to tough international sanctions, collapsed despite summits between Kim and Trump in 2018 and 2019, but an attack on Iran could prompt North Korea to reconsider.
The Iranian attack killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and came two months after another leader without a nuclear deterrent, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, was captured in a U.S. Special Forces raid ordered by Trump.
“Kim Jong-un must think that Iran is being attacked like this because it does not have nuclear weapons,” said Song Seong-jong, a professor at Daejeon University and a former official at South Korea’s Defense Ministry.
A spokesman for North Korea’s foreign ministry said in a statement published on state media on Sunday that military action was inevitable given the “hegemonic and rogue” nature of the United States.
Just days before the attack, Kim Jong Un pledged to build more nuclear weapons at a ruling party congress last week, though he left the door open to more talks depending on Washington’s approach.
“If the United States withdraws its policy of confrontation with North Korea by respecting our country’s current status… there is no reason why we cannot live in harmony with the United States,” KCNA quoted Kim as saying.
Trump has repeatedly said he hopes to hold new talks, fueling speculation that the two leaders could meet when he visits China from March 31 to April 2.
Pre-emptive strike
“The lesson the Trump administration wants pariah states to learn is clear; stop threatening the United States and its allies and make a deal before it’s too late,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. Still, North Korea is far more advanced than Iran in developing nuclear warheads and delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, he said.
In 2022, North Korea formally enshrined the right to use pre-emptive nuclear strikes into a law that Kim Jong Un said made his nuclear status “irreversible.”
However, resuming talks with the United States is not a priority for Kim Jong Un, said Sidney Thaler, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The former US envoy added during six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program: “President Trump’s willingness to use military force and threats as bargaining chips is bound to make Kim Jong Un nervous and less likely to rush into negotiations.”
But some analysts say Kim’s heightened threat awareness could push him back to the negotiating table.
“Unlike Iran, it is impossible for North Korea to denuclearize,” said Cho Han-beom of the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, citing the nuclear facilities scattered across North Korea.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think tank estimated last year that North Korea is estimated to have assembled about 50 warheads and has enough fissile material to produce up to 40 warheads.
Dealing with Trump
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of Korean Studies in Seoul, said a window of opportunity for negotiations still exists if Kim Jong Un seeks to “use his personal relationship with President Trump to explore Washington’s stance on North Korea while buying time to further advance the country’s nuclear capabilities.”
Nam Sung-wook, a professor at Sookmyung Women’s University and former head of a South Korean spy agency think tank, said Kim Jong-un may consider a conditional meeting with Trump if the United States recognizes North Korea’s nuclear status.
North Korea’s leader may also believe that his ties to China and Russia provide protection, Nam said.
In September, Kim made a rare trip to Beijing on an armored train, where he stood shoulder to shoulder with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a major military parade.
Ko Yong-hwan, a North Korean diplomat-turned-North Korean defector who has advised the South Korean government, said that despite the relationship, Kim Jong Un may still want to assure Trump that he will not use nuclear weapons against the United States.
“The Iran incident must have made him think that he should handle his relationship with the United States better.”
(Reporting by Heejin Kim and Sebin Choi, additional reporting by Joyce Lee and Hwawon Lee; Editing by Ed Davies and Clarence Fernandez)