Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX exchange and chief information officer of Maelstrom Fund, said that the key to leading decentralized exchange Hyperliquid’s entry into the prediction market will be who can capture the upside, not just cheaper transactions.
CoinDesk previously reported that Hyperliquid is preparing a zero-fee position opening model for event trading under HIP-4. Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 is a proposal to introduce event trading on Hyperliquid.
Hayes said the structure is just the first layer. In a note to CoinDesk, he believes the real differentiator is Hyperliquid’s trading token HYPE, which he said allows users to benefit from platform activity in ways that Polymarket and Kalshi currently cannot.
“HIP-4 will quickly become the dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid’s large user base, much cheaper transaction fees, and very strong technical infrastructure,” Hayes told CoinDesk. “Users who own $HYPE tokens can profit directly from using HIP-4.”
Polymarket is expected to launch a token, commonly known as $POLY.
On Gate, pre-market perpetual contracts related to the underlying $POLY token are trading at around $14, implying a fully diluted valuation of around $14 billion. By comparison, HYPE’s FDV is approximately $38 billion, according to CoinGecko.
Pre-IPO markets tend to be highly speculative and trading volumes are low, meaning any implied valuations should be treated with caution and may not reliably reflect actual market demand.
The argument also boils down to geography. Polymarket registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last July and is currently rebuilding its U.S. operations, putting compliance at the core of its strategy.
In Asia, however, the company is still grappling with how regulators classify its products. It is geo-blocked in Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan, and partially restricted in Japan. Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, wider prediction markets are under the spotlight of gambling regulators
Hyperliquid does not face the same restrictions, with its user base skewed towards Asia, where native cryptocurrency trading is already deep.
The contrast is most stark with Kalsi.
As a CFTC-regulated exchange, Kalshi’s model is built around compliance and licensing rather than token incentives, which may preclude the kind of value-added layer Hayes was referring to.
This makes it the most direct test of his thesis. Users can trade event results on Kalshi, but they do not gain access to the advantages of the platform itself. In traditional markets, this upside is typically obtained through equity (such as an IPO), although currently Kalshi user participation is limited to trading on the platform.
Across the three platforms, the divergence is structural: Hyperliquid already ties usage to tokens, Polymarket seems to be moving in that direction, and Kalshi’s model may prevent it entirely.