As the Indianapolis Colts prepare to take on the San Francisco 49ers last week, there’s reason to be optimistic about the Colts’ defensive potential.
Just a week ago, Indianapolis allowed 18 points and no touchdowns to Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Ngiba and their Seattle Seahawks teammates. Why not beat another NFC West team making the playoffs in prime-time football?
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But the Colts couldn’t stop or even slow down Brock Purdy and the Niners’ offense, which scored 48 points on the 49ers’ first five-pass touchdown performance in 30 years. While Indianapolis isn’t the first team this season to be troubled by the 49ers’ offensive prowess, the Colts’ biggest weakness may provide clues this weekend when the 49ers host the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football.
The Colts’ defense ranks near league average (18th) in scoring defense and ranks fifth among NFL teams. But Indianapolis’ pass defense, especially the pass rush, struggles to disrupt opponents.
In fact, no team is less efficient at rushing the ball this season than the Colts, who rank last with a 28% pass-rush win rate according to ESPN’s metrics. (For context, the No. 1-ranked Cleveland Browns have a pass interception rate of 47 percent.)
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The second-worst team in pass rush defense is the Bears, with a winning percentage of 29%.
This is a glaring weakness for a defense that, by several other metrics, should be concerning for opponents.
No team ranks better than the Bears in turnovers, one of the statistics most clearly correlated with winning. Their +21 turnover margin is largely due to their league-high 31 steals, including a league-high 21 interceptions.
“They’re aggressive when the ball is in the air, they don’t hesitate,” Purdy said this week. “Obviously, their guys have length and all-around athleticism. I just feel like they’re well-coached in terms of being offensive and not trying to second-guess.
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“There’s no doubt they’re popular in movies.”
But will their opportunism without a pass-rush threat be enough to slow down Purdy and his staff?
Will Purdy’s success against the Bears depend on how long he has in the pocket?
Purdy has been in hot form since missing six weeks in a row and eight weeks total with a big toe injury.
Since his return, he has thrown 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. The 49ers won all five games.
Forget about their defensive shakeup after five-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Nick Bosa, four-time All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner and first-round rookie defensive lineman Mikel Williams were lost for the season. Also forget that their offense is operating without its top receiver in recent years after the offseason trade of Deebo Samuel and an injury-related contract dispute with Brandon Aiyuk that sidelined Aiyuk for the entire season.
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Without running backs Christian McCaffrey, Purdy and tight end George Kittle out for at least five weeks, the 49ers have won 11 games and have a chance to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
“I think it’s tough,” Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen said. “I think linebackers and tight ends are a very tough matchup on defense. If you have a good receiver, you can really do some things to try to take those guys away. The inside of the tight end, running back position becomes more challenging. … I don’t think they’re going to do anything where they say, ‘We’re going to get the ball to this guy on this particular game.’
“I think [Purdy] Does a good job of completing his progression and getting the ball to the open man. “
When the 49ers’ Brock Purdy has time, he looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(Icon Sports Wire via Getty Images)
Rhythm and time in the pocket are key to these developments.
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Purdy had thrown five touchdowns and one interception with 3.31 seconds left in Monday’s game. Purdy has been intercepted three times this season, two of which came before his six-week layoff. Those three games correspond to his fastest throw times, most notably against the Carolina Panthers when Purdy only had 2.9 seconds to throw the ball, according to Next Gen Stats.
Without a winning pass rusher, the Bears may have a hard time disrupting Kyle Shanahan’s carefully timed offense and thus disrupting the rhythm of Purdy and his targets. The 49ers offense isn’t slow per se; rather, it works effectively with a variety of options as Purdy patiently waits for his routes to develop.
“Just watch how quickly they operate, how quickly they lead the run game and how they get to their landmarks,” Allen said. “All offensive linemen are consistent in terms of running routes. Every player runs a certain route, and it all looks the same no matter who it is.”
“To me, it’s the details of coaching.”
Bears-49ers game feels like ‘another playoff game’ with high NFC stakes
One defensive assistant who played against the 49ers this year emphasized the power of Shanahan’s scheme in the success of Purdy and Mac Jones, who helped the 49ers to a 5-3 record in Purdy’s absence while throwing 13 touchdowns and six interceptions.
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“Mac Jones played well as well,” the assistant told Yahoo Sports. “Their run forces the defense to[s] Play single high safety coverage and allow the quarterback to make easy reads. “
What follows is a breakout route in the numbers and a quick pass on a quick read. Purdy would benefit when he gets some time. But that doesn’t mean he’ll ever accept it.
“Played up to Purdy’s skill set,” the assistant said, adding that Shanahan “is a total stud as a play-caller.”
However, if the 49ers are brought before the College Football Playoff Committee, their winning streak may not deserve all the credit for the five-game winning streak. Of the five teams they’ve beaten during this stretch, none have gone more than eight wins; three teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and the Colts have less than a 1 percent chance of advancing, according to Next Gen Stats.
Only the Panthers remain in contention with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC South title and a shot at making the playoffs. The Panthers intercepted Purdy three times.
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In his two games in September against the playoff-bound Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars, Purdy had two interceptions in each game.
So against the 11-4 Bears, another playoff team and the league’s takeaway leader, Purdy will face his toughest opponent in three months.
“I want a touchdown on every drive,” Purdy said. “So I looked at myself, ‘Well, how come we didn’t convert there?’ The interception at the end [Colts] The game, like the cue ball, it’s high. So just watching film and being real with myself about how I can be better accurate on certain plays and being aggressive and not second-guessing certain plays.
“I feel pretty good about reading and making good decisions. So there’s definitely lessons learned from that, but there’s always room for improvement.”
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The Bears aim to disrupt that decision-making as they visit San Francisco as a three-point underdog in 11 wins.
They’ll be primed for the 49ers’ snap action and versatility; their schematic wrinkles “force defenses to communicate and try to get guys out of position,” cornerback Kevin Byard said.
Even without Jordan Love, last week’s win over the Green Bay Packers in Chicago resonated. But the Bears hope they haven’t peaked yet.
Rush or not, they were coming for Purdy.
“The more games you win, the bigger the next game is,” Byard said. “Obviously, we just had a huge win against Green Bay [last] Saturday night. But this game is bigger. This is a team that has already locked up a playoff spot. This will be another time to be able to perform at this level as a team.
“I think another playoff game.”