Bitcoin It’s up nearly 10% this month, but gains are hitting resistance near $75,000. The pause is noteworthy as U.S. stocks hit record highs.
On-chain data shows holders are selling hard, which helps explain the slowdown.
This is evident from an on-chain metric called “Realized Profit/Loss,” which tracks the total dollar value of gains or losses locked in by holders when moving their tokens on-chain. This indicator compares the current price at which a coin moved to the price at which it last moved (the hypothetical cost of purchase), effectively showing whether investors sold at a profit or loss.
Values above 1 indicate increased profit taking, and the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) is currently well above that threshold. EMA is used to cut through the day-to-day noise and highlight the broader trend of realized profits.
“Profit-taking activity is increasing, with the 30-day moving average of the realized P/L ratio at 1.16, indicating that investors are selling aggressively. If the price continues to rise above $78,100, the market will need to digest this indirect supply,” the company said in a report.
Profit-taking was particularly strong on Tuesday, with Bitcoin briefly climbing to $76,000 before quickly falling back below $75,000. According to CryptoQuant, investors realized profits of approximately $1.14 billion during this period of volatility, one of the largest single-day profits this year.
This metric, while widely tracked, has limitations, primarily that it assumes that tokens moving on the chain are being sold. In fact, they may simply be moved between wallets or exchanges for custody, rebalancing, or internal transfers.
That said, the latest signal of profit-taking is consistent with other indicators, such as cumulative volume delta, suggesting that demand is concentrated on specific exchanges, while activity elsewhere remains weak.
CVD is a measure of who is more aggressive in the market. It indicates whether the market is driven more by buyers demanding liquidity or sellers bidding.
Glassnode said buyers so far have been primarily active on Binance, but not so much on Coinbase or other exchanges.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India’s FIU-registered exchange Giottus, agreed, saying market sentiment was improving but conviction was not yet fully established.
He said: “The financing rate is still slightly negative, indicating that traders are still cautious and have not yet gone significantly long. On-chain activity has slowed. This indicates that the market is consolidating rather than overheating.”
Additionally, Bitcoin options trading on Deribit continues to show a bias towards put options across all timeframes. It signals lingering concerns about the downside and demand for the protection offered by put options.
Taken together, profit-taking pressure, spot demand imbalances, and cautious derivatives positioning all suggest that buyers are absorbing supply but are not yet overwhelming it.