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The new sunspot complex AR 4294-4296 is approximately the same size as the dark spot that caused the infamous Carrington Event in 1859. Image source: NASA
A giant sunspot cluster – they are the same size as those from the largest solar storms in history – has just appeared on the Earth-facing side of the sun and is now pointing directly at our planet. But don’t panic! While auroras and some technical disturbances are possible in the coming week, it seems unlikely that a new sunspot complex will trigger a second Carrington event.
This complex, known as AR 4294-4296, consists of two different sunspot groups, AR 4294 and AR 4296, that are magnetically intertwined. It was first visible on November 28, when it rotated to the west, sun-facing side of our parent star. However, the dark spots were first spotted by NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover about a week ago. Monitoring the far side of the Sun relative to Earth.
AR 4294-4296 is roughly the same size as the giant sunspot observed by British astronomer Richard Carrington in September 1859, which subsequently gave birth to “carrington events“—the largest solar storm ever seen by humans. The image above was first created by Space Weather Network On December 2, the sunspot complex Carrington’s 19th-century sketch of the giant behemoth. At first glance, the new sunspot complex appears larger. However, in reality, its dark spot covers about 90% of the Sun’s surface the size of the Carrington sunspot.
Sunspots have the ability to release powerful waves of radiation, or solar flarereleasing energy into space as their invisible magnetic field lines twist and break. These explosive bursts could trigger temporary radio blackouts on Earth and launch large clouds of fast-moving plasma, or coronal mass ejection (coronal mass ejection) on our planet. When this happens, it can subsequently cause a disturbance in the Earth’s magnetic field, called a geomagnetic storm, which can Interference with electronic equipment and draw vibrant aurora Night sky.
The new dark spot is “one of the largest sunspot swarms in the past 10 years,” with the ability to unleash ultra-powerful Class X flares – the most powerful type in NOAA’s solar flare classification system – Spaceweather.com rep Recently written. If it did explode and release a coronal mass ejection, the resulting solar storm “would have Earth effects,” they added.
NASA’s Perseverance rover first discovered AR 4294-4296 from Mars when the sunspot complex was still located on the far side of the sun relative to the Earth. |Image source: NASA
In 1859, the Carrington Event triggered a solar flare estimated to be of magnitude X45, which remains a record despite geological evidence Even more powerful explosions It happened long before there were humans. For context, the X45 flare was more than five times more powerful than the most powerful solar flare of the past decade – X7 explosion in October 2024.
If a similarly powerful explosion hit Earth today, the radiation would Destroy all satellites in Earth orbitrecent simulations show. It can also wreak havoc on the ground and potentially damage parts of the power grid. Experts estimate that the total damage will easily exceed $1 trillion.
If AR 4294-4296 is close in size to the sunspot that produced the Carrington event, that means a giant solar storm could occur, right? Well, yes and no.
Larger sunspots do have the potential to emit more powerful solar flares. For example, sunspots A geomagnetic “superstorm” is born May 2024 is More than 15 times wider than Earth. However, when it comes to sunspots, size isn’t everything.
Whether a sunspot reaches its maximum explosive potential is also related to the structure of its magnetic field and the frequency of explosions, meaning some giant sunspots may be completely harmless.
According to Spaceweather.com, AR 4294-4296’s magnetic field is very entangled, which means flares are possible, and the complex has unleashed potential X-class flares while still on the far side of the sun. Despite this, however, experts say there are no clear signs of a superstorm comparable to the Carrington event in the near future.
Scientists will be watching the magnetic field of this latest behemoth especially closely, looking for signs of upcoming activity. But if it happened to spin past Earth without any outbursts, a giant black spot might be big enough Survive more than one orbit around the sunmeaning they could be back for a “second round” closer to Christmas.
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In recent years, the sun has been particularly active because it Recently visited The most active phase of the approximately 11-year solar cycle, called solar maximum period.
This has fueled several recent X-class flares, including two back-to-back explosions. Triggered a G4 (severe) geomagnetic storm Between November 11th and 12th. In fact, in 2024 The largest number of X-class flares in a single year Since the beginning of modern recording in 1996.
Many of these flares triggered geomagnetic storms on Earth, including the extreme disturbance in May 2024, which The most powerful product of its kind in 21 years and triggered some The most widespread auroras in centuries.