Prediction markets are increasingly viewed less as gambling platforms and more as tools for monetizing information, although the founders admit that this line may become blurred based on user intent under the Hong Kong Consensus 2026.
Predict.fun founder Ding X believes that prediction markets are more like insurance underwriting or poker than roulette. “It’s more about information trading and trying to hedge risk than gambling,” he said, distinguishing skill-based predictions from games where long-term odds guarantee losses.
DASTAN co-founder Farokh Sarmad agreed that speculation exists, but described the industry as a “trillion-dollar asset class in the making.” In his view, prediction markets are simply the “financialization of information,” allowing participants to monetize insights rather than just leaving the value to media companies or bookmakers.
Jared Dillinger, CEO of New Prontera Group and a former professional athlete, said the classification largely depends on how the platform is built and used. “It just depends on the eye of the beholder,” he said, adding that prediction markets act as an “information asset class,” even if some users approach them like bets.
A more pressing challenge is insider trading. High-profile examples ranging from leaked entertainment listings to geopolitical developments highlight the risks of information asymmetry.
“Insider information is bad,” Sarmad said, noting that blockchain transparency can make suspicious wallets visible. Dillinger acknowledged, however, that enforcement will be limited. “People are always going to find some loopholes.”
As trading volumes rise and regulators take notice, the founders agree that monitoring tools, clearer disclosure norms and stronger platform governance will determine whether prediction markets mature into a recognized financial category or remain viewed as speculative betting.