Fantasy Football Target Trends: 3 big-name players doing their best Diontae Johnson impression

This year’s Diontae Johnson Award doesn’t have a high-profile winner — the player who catches all targets but no touchdowns. Every player with 67 or more targets this year has found the end zone. Cade Otton, who has 66 targets and no touchdowns, may be stuck at this level for a while — he’s listed as questionable for Week 15. Chig Okonkwo (53 goals) and Kendrick Bourne (43 goals) are also looking at bagels, but it’s not like we expected these guys to work miracles. They are not part of the story.

So let’s focus on those key target players who were underperforming in touchdowns (although not zero points) and see what we think about that.

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WR Justin Jefferson (109 TDs, 2 TDs)

It’s been a nightmare season for the first-round pick, as he has the 10th most targets but is only the WR25. He hasn’t topped 80 rushing yards since Week 5 and has only scored once in the last 12 games.

Maybe it seems too convenient to blame everything on JJ McCarthy’s growing pains, but it’s probably the right conclusion. Consider Carson Wentz and McCarthy targeted Jefferson roughly the same number of times in 2025, but with very different results:

– Wentz vs. Jefferson: 34-for-50 (68.0%), 477 yards, 9.5 YPA
– McCarthy vs. Jefferson: 28-for-53 (52.8%), 329 yards, 6.2 YPA

Both touchdowns came from McCarthy, but McCarthy also had six picks against Jefferson (Watts had two). Wentz graded Jefferson at 81.8, while McCarthy graded at 45.0.

Jefferson remains optimistic this week in the consensus WR16 rankings, in part because the Cowboys are so attractive. But the issue likely won’t be truly resolved until next year, when the Vikings can provide tougher competition for McCarthy. Minnesota’s infrastructure still has enough to lure an interesting free agent — Kevin O’Connell is a respected player and quarterback developer, and Jefferson and Jordan Addison are attractive targets. I’m open to Jefferson bouncing back in 2026, but I wouldn’t actively start him for the rest of the season.

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WR Zay Flowers (95, 1 TD)

This one especially stings because a flower breakthrough is on my 2025 menu for the third year. He went 7-143-1 in an opening-week loss to Buffalo and hasn’t scored a touchdown since.

You can’t deny the overall chance. Flowers ranks 16th in targets, 12th in receptions and eighth in yards. His yards per target (9.4) were a career high; as was his catch rate (71.6 percent). When Lamar Jackson targeted Flowers, the results were solid: 10.4 YPA and 108.7 rating.

The poor touchdown count was a bit of bad luck. Flowers was tackled inside the 10-yard line on seven different receptions. But we also need to understand that the Ravens aren’t going to throw too many balls to Flowers in close — he has just two targets inside the 10 and seven inside the 20.

Prior to this year, Flowers was a career rookie (entering his third season) and a rookie betting on talent, and it was thought that such a skilled receiver could certainly score more than 4-5 touchdowns when paired with an MVP contender quarterback. Flowers has clearly been affected by Jackson’s absence this year and his struggles since Jackson’s return, although Baltimore’s offense looked better last week. But until the Ravens find a way to unleash Flowers in tighter areas — remember, he’s 5-foot-9 and 175 pounds — we’re talking about a player who regularly dunks in his 20s but might struggle to score touchdowns.

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TE Kyle Pitts Sr. (85 targets, 1 TD)

I’m not here to make unwarranted jabs at Pitts, who has been very helpful to fantasy managers lately. He checked in as a TE6 and TE7 over the past two weeks, and if you graded all tight ends starting in Week 7, he was a TE11. This is a player who deserves to be included, and usually a player who deserves to start.

Of course, don’t look for him in the end zone.

It’s been a long-standing theme in Pitts’ career – he’s only scored 11 times in 74 career games and has never scored more than four times in any season. The Falcons are not trying to make Pitts a touchdown scorer this year.

Consider the usage trends of Pitts. He ranks third among all tight ends in market share (20.3%) and sixth in first-read rate (21.0%). The Falcons like to get the ball to Pitts, but not in the end zone. He has only one end zone target all year (Trey McBride leads the way with 15), and he has only five red zone targets this season (behind players like Gunnar Helm, Dawson Knox, Tyler Higbee and Ja’Tavion Sanders). This isn’t Pitts having bad luck, but rather a choice made by Atlanta’s coaching staff.

The Falcons are a disappointing 4-9 and will likely be cleaning up at the end of the season. Considering Pitts is still quite young (he turns 26 next October), I might be willing to consider him an upside TE2/TE3 in the later stages of next summer’s draft, assuming this team has the right offensive mindset.

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Top 5 target earners for each position starting in Week 14

wide receiver

run back

tight end