Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at cryptocurrency-focused venture capital firm Dragonfly, said 2026 will be the year when long-term trends in cryptocurrencies manifest rather than reset, even as the market sees wild swings in both directions.
In a Dec. 29 X post, Qureshi outlined a broad outlook that reflects a broader reassessment by investors after several cycles of volatility in which durability, distribution and real-world usage took precedence over rapid experimentation.
Markets and Blockchain
Qureshi expects Bitcoin to top $150,000 by 2026, but will account for a smaller share of the overall cryptocurrency market. He sees the combination as a sign that activity elsewhere could expand without replacing Bitcoin’s role as the industry’s anchor asset.
He is skeptical of new fintech brand blockchains, arguing that recent enthusiasm is unlikely to translate into sustained use. In his view, key metrics such as wallet participation, stablecoin traffic and tokenized asset adoption will fall short of expectations.
Instead, Qureshi expects developer activity to continue to focus on infrastructure that prioritizes neutrality and composability. Within this framework, he believes Ethereum and Solana continue to outperform expectations, even as newer networks compete for attention.
He also expects businesses to become more deeply involved, particularly in payments and financial services. Qureshi predicts that at least one large tech company will launch or acquire a crypto wallet, while more Fortune 100 companies deploy blockchain systems related to banking and fintech operations. He highlighted Avalanche and several aggregation frameworks as platforms that could benefit from this trend.
Market Structure and DeFi
In the field of decentralized finance, Qureshi expects the market structure to move towards integration rather than fragmentation. He predicts that a handful of dominant trading venues will capture the majority of on-chain perpetual futures trading, while smaller platforms will compete for the shrinking remaining share.
He also believes product innovation is reshaping trading behavior, particularly through derivatives formats and liquidity mechanisms that emphasize negotiated execution rather than open order books. At the same time, he warned that increasing levels of complexity could pose reputational risks and predicted that at least one DeFi-related insider trading controversy would draw mainstream scrutiny.
Payments and Stablecoins
Qureshi’s strongest convictions center on payments infrastructure. He expects the supply of stablecoins to increase significantly in 2026 while still being denominated in U.S. dollars, even as individual issuers compete for market share.
Rather than focusing solely on issuance, he emphasized distribution, arguing that the new payment rails will accelerate adoption faster than in previous cycles. He believes these channels will play a central role in bringing stablecoins into daily use, especially in emerging markets.
regulation and politics
On the policy front, Qureshi expects U.S. lawmakers to propose a crypto market structure bill in 2026 after extensive negotiations. While he thinks progress is possible, he warns that the end result could leave parts of the industry unhappy.
He also predicted that cryptocurrency businesses tied to U.S. politics would come under greater political scrutiny, warning that congressional investigations could expose questionable transactions and have reputational consequences for participants.
Prediction markets, artificial intelligence and security
Qureshi expects the prediction market to expand rapidly as cultural acceptance increases, although legal uncertainty remains. He expects a handful of consumer-facing platforms to gain the most traction, while most copycat efforts will fail to gain traction.
Qureshi believes that in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), cryptocurrency’s near-term gains will still be focused on developer tools and security, rather than consumer automation. He expects smaller teams to use AI-driven workflows to deliver increasingly complex products, while cybersecurity can be improved through automated monitoring even as attack attempts continue.
Qureshi revealed that he invested in many of the assets mentioned in the post.