U.S. stock futures plunged on Monday as oil prices soared past the $100-a-barrel mark and investors braced for the next move in the still-escalating Middle East war.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell 1.5% after plunging 1,000 points overnight. S&P 500 (ES=F) and Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) contracts fell about 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively. All three indexes recovered slightly from deeper losses of more than 2% earlier.
Oil prices retreated from earlier highs after surging about 25% late Sunday as the conflict with Iran prompted countries to cut output. Production cuts have been curbed as the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor remains closed. Kuwait confirmed production cuts but did not specify the scale, while Iraqi output was reported to have fallen by about 70%.
West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) traded around $103, while global benchmark Brent (BZ=F) crude futures changed hands above $107, both up about 15%.
Stocks suffered a severe sell-off last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) down about 3%, its biggest weekly loss since April 2025 when the Trump administration’s tariff concerns roiled markets. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closed down more than 1%.
Looking ahead to domestic economic reports, investors will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditure Index readings, although neither index will yet capture the impact of the recent surge in oil prices on price pressures.
On the corporate front, earnings season continues, with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) expected to report results after the close on Monday. Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE) and Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) are scheduled to release reports in the coming week.
live 5 updates
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What some people on Wall Street think
Veteran strategist Chris Rupkey offers his reliable take on the new hot take below.
I’d say his views are still far from consensus (we’re in recession because of the Iran situation), but one should look for comments like this in the coming days:
“All the ingredients for a recession are already there, and there is growing concern that the variables facing Trump 2.0 economic officials are beyond their control to keep the economic ship sailing. Oil prices are surging, and it would be a miracle if the economy doesn’t slip into recession at this point. The U.S. economy doesn’t need to be hit by another surge in oil prices. Get out, move to safer waters, sell everything you can and maintain liquidity. The worst may be yet to come.”
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Goldman Sachs weighs in on oil price surge
Goldman Sachs’ new forecast for oil looks outdated given the sharp swings in oil prices since last night.
“Based on this new data, developments and the scale of the shock, we now think oil prices could move above $100 next [this week] If there are no signs of a solution by then, it will take a week. We also now believe that if flows in the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed throughout March, oil prices, particularly refined products, could exceed the 2008 and 2022 peaks. “
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Soaring oil prices rock global markets, sending Asian stock indexes hard hit
Key indicators in Asia fell more than 5% as the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran is seen as causing global instability. The drop in oil prices was driven by a surge in oil prices, which is a potential indicator of a coming recession.
AP Financial Report:
Read more here.
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Gold prices fall as soaring oil prices lead to instability
Bloomberg reports:
Read more here.
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Oil prices top $100 per barrel, fastest rise since the 1980s
Yahoo Finance’s Jack Conley reports:
Read more here.
