LOS ANGELES (AP) — How many Democrats are too many?
So many Democratic candidates are swarming in the California gubernatorial race that party insiders are beginning to worry that a historic disaster is about to occur. Mathematically, the Democratic vote gap is so wide that it is possible for two Republicans to make it from the June primary to the general election.
“It’s now an indoor game in Sacramento — is this going to happen?” said Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell.
The uncertainty about the outcome stems from the state’s unpredictable “two-strong” primary system. All candidates appear on a single ballot, but only the two top candidates, regardless of party, advance to the November general election. This is the first time since voters approved the system more than a decade ago that there is no clear front-runner in the gubernatorial race, fueling the question of “Why not me?” The mentality of Democrats flocking to the campaign in droves.
“There’s a good chance that there will only be Republicans on the ballot in November,” the campaign of former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, warned at a recent fundraiser.
A political shock brewing?
While that remains a distant hope, it’s hard to underestimate the political impact of two Republicans coming out on top in California’s midterm elections. The state is known as a Democratic bastion, with no Republican candidate winning a statewide election in two decades. It will also have implications for down-the-ballot races, including congressional battlegrounds that could decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Why are there so many candidates? The California governor’s office has always had a magnetic appeal—it’s one of the most powerful political platforms in the nation. The state itself is ranked as the fourth largest economy in the world. It is the largest agricultural producer in the United States and is home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood. The state budget spends nearly $350 billion a year, roughly the market value of Netflix.
Candidates attracted by wide-ranging elections
It’s the most public gubernatorial race in a generation as Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is legally barred from seeking a third term.
Dozens of people, from college students to billionaires, have filed campaign documents. At least nine of those Democrats have the name recognition and fundraising machinery to compete seriously.
The list includes current and former members of Congress — Porter, Reps. Eric Swalwell and Xavier Becerra, who later served as the top health official in the Biden administration; former state controller Betty Yee and school superintendent Tony Thurmond; billionaire Tom Steyer; San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; and Ian Calderon, the former majority leader of the state House.
With Democrats occupying much of the same ideological turf, candidates are emphasizing other symbols to get out of trouble. For example, Swalwell’s campaign was built in part on his role as House manager of Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Mahan is the latest candidate in the race to frequently criticize Newsom on crime and homelessness. Steyer was one of Mahan’s harshest critics, saying he was too aligned with tech interests.
Some Democrats would like to see the field shrink on its own.
Drexel Hurd II, a Democratic strategist and former executive director of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, said “lower-class people withdrawing” is the best option. “What you see are people who will never break through.”
The “top two” main factors bring uncertainty
Mitchell said he ran a series of simulations using existing polling data to assess the likelihood of a double-break Republican and found it was possible, albeit remote. The leading Republican candidates are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both supporters of President Donald Trump.
California is one of the most staunchly Democratic states in the country. Statewide, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one, and since 2010 Democrats have held every statewide office while Republicans have been reduced to powerless bystanders in the Legislature.
In the primary, Democrats are expected to get about 60% of the vote and Republicans 40%. The math becomes challenging for Democrats if they have a long list of credible candidates in the race, reducing their vote share.
“It’s a long shot, but it would be a huge deal,” Mitchell said. The dilemma for Democrats: “No one is going to come in and tell these low-level candidates they can’t run.”
Republicans, for their part, are also concerned about the tricky math. Hilton has been calling on Bianco to withdraw, hoping Republicans can unite and push a candidate for the November election.
“We can’t risk splitting the Republican vote and bringing Democrats in,” Hilton said during a recent debate.
Democrats look for national leader
The race has some similarities to the rapidly developing 2028 Democratic presidential race, with a slew of candidates coming together to compete for an open seat. With Democrats still recovering from the blow the national party suffered in 2024, candidates in both races are testing the messages they hope will excite voters in the midterms and beyond.
With Republicans in charge of Congress and the White House, many Americans are pessimistic about the future, and the high number of candidates is both a sign of energy and frustration within the party, said Democratic consultant Antjuan Seawright.
The common thread between the races: “We have to learn how to focus on the game of expansion and strengthening our league,” Searight said.