Clemson travels to Winston-Salem for a must-win game against Wake Forest. Clemson looks to snap its second two-game losing streak of the year. The last time they suffered two straight losses was against BYU and Alabama, they responded with nine straight wins. KenPom gives the Tigers a 57% chance of beating the Demon Deacons despite their first 2-game winning streak in ACC play. To help us preview the game, we reached out to my friend and former blogger Dear Editor Robert Reinhard.
Ryan Kantor: The Demon Deacons have fallen into the unwelcome position of being too bad to give you real hope, but too good to completely quit and assume there will be a major reset next season. How was the Coach Forbes era for Deakin fans? Where do you think it will go?
Robert Reinhard: For Wake Forest fans, the Forbes era is a controversial topic. I’m sure everyone will admit that he has significantly improved this program compared to what we had under Jeff Bzdelik and Danny Manning. If you exclude Forbes’ first year at Wake since being hired during the COVID-19 pandemic and not seeing his players in person until the summer, his average Ken Boehm rating is 59. Manning’s average rating during his final five seasons at Wake was 104. Forbes also had four straight seasons with double-digit ACC wins, while Manning didn’t even do that once.
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Forbes’ clear criticism of him is that although he has elevated the program, he is in his sixth year and has yet to make an NCAA tournament appearance. Wake came very close in at least two of his seasons, but lost to some teams they shouldn’t have lost to in both seasons, which ultimately cost them the offer. If you give 22 and 24 teams one more win each, you look at Forbes’ tenure very differently.
I don’t believe Wake would fire him, and I don’t believe they should fire him. While Wake’s coaching performance hasn’t been perfect this year, he ranks about 14th in ACC roster spending (RPM share + none) this season. Our athletic directors take this into consideration when evaluating the work done by Forbes, and rightfully so.
While it would be easy to spend other people’s money, I believe Wake needs to make a greater commitment to our basketball program next year. I guarantee that while they may find a better coach than Forbes in the future, they won’t find one with a better resume. He won at least 24 games in each of his five seasons at East Tennessee State University, including two conference championships and an NCAA tournament appearance. Prior to that, he served as an assistant coach at Wichita State, Tennessee and Texas A&M, among others.
RK: The leader for Wake Forest this year is Juke Harris, who averages 21 points per game. He was at the free throw line all day in the win over Stanford. Tell us about his game.
RR： Juke Harris is one of the most improved players in the country. I thought he would improve this season, but I didn’t expect him to be a potential first-team All-ACC selection. At 6-foot-7, he’s a good fit for the 3 position. He’s a slasher who can make contact and finish around the rim, but he’s also shooting 36 percent from three and taking over 2.5 threes per game. He’s not an elite defender, but he’s solid and a very good defensive rebounder. Obviously, he’ll be high on Brad Brownell’s scouting report.
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RK: The Tigers are coming off a perfect West Coast trip with a 10-1 record and a tie for first in the ACC. Then last week they were 0-2. They played their worst game of the year against VT. Then at Duke, their offense looked terrible. Clemson’s defense was especially cold without Ace Buckner, as Dillon Hunter, Buta Johnson and Justin Porter combined for 14 points in the two losses.
As a result, Clemson is locked in a battle for a top-four seed and a double bye in the ACC Tournament and finds itself at a critical point in its season. What kind of defensive resistance will the Deacons provide as Clemson looks to get its offense back on track?
RR： Defense has not been this team’s strong suit, especially in conference play. That’s because Wake has been last in the ACC in offensive rebounding rate. I can’t tell you how many times we’ve seen us play good initial defense, only to give up offensive rebounds that lead to easy putbacks or open threes. This is demoralizing. I often find myself just saying “Get the ball!” It’s improved over the past week, but rebounding will definitely be tested by Clemson.
That’s not to say this is our only problem. Our defense against NC State was poor initially, helping the 3-point shooter and making the 3-point shot look too easy.
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If Wake defends well, he will force turnovers and then convert in transition. Clemson is very good at running the ball, so that’s a stat to watch.
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RK: Clemson’s success is built on having three good big men who can rotate down low. Godfrey brings strength and movement, Welling brings length and rim athleticism, and Davidson brings shooting touch. How is Wake Forest University responding to this issue? Is Clemson’s best way to win through the post? What is the best path to Wake Forest University?
RR： There aren’t many options that offer a good response. I wouldn’t be surprised if we occasionally try to double up, as playing the entire game straight away may not be a winning strategy. Outside of coverage, I believe we have to bounce back as a team and send our wings out to help ensure turnovers. But I agree that Clemson’s best way to win is to drive inside and crush the offensive glass.
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Wake’s best path to victory must start on defense. Wake can’t give Clemson a lot of extra offense because I feel like Clemson’s defense is so solid that it’s going to be hard to keep up. Part of that will also be finding ways to generate turnovers and score in transition so you don’t have to go up against the Clemson defense all day long.
Beyond that, Wake will need players like Mekhi Mason to continue to step up and knock down 3-pointers. Not only does this lead to points, but he stretches the floor to open up more space for Juke Harris’ offense. We also need to be strong with the ball against Clemson’s physicality.