Thousands of Chinese workers are returning to Africa, reversing a decade-long downward trend and signaling a renewed focus on strategic mega-projects across the continent.
Data from the China-Africa Research Initiative (CARI) at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University shows that in 2024, there were 90,793 Chinese workers engaged in contract engineering and labor services on the African continent, an increase of about 4% from 87,078 in the previous year.
The improvement marks the end of a downward trend that began in 2015, when the labor force reached a record 263,696 people. The milestone, which coincided with an era of extensive bilateral lending by China, has cooled as Beijing began to take a more cautious approach to financing Belt and Road Initiative projects.
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Now, the number of workers in Africa’s major countries is growing again as investment flows, driven mainly by Chinese state-owned enterprises, accelerate.
Last year, nearly half of the Chinese workers on the African continent were concentrated in five countries, namely Guinea (11,071), Democratic Republic of the Congo (9,694), Egypt (8,170), Angola (7,444) and Nigeria (6,035).
CARI clarified that the statistics track people on formal state contracts but exclude a wider group of irregular migrants, including traders and shopkeepers.
The recent increase in Chinese workers has been driven largely by large-scale resource projects, such as Guinea’s $20 billion Simandou iron ore project – an ambitious consortium-led project that requires large numbers of skilled labor for its final construction phase.
CARI’s Deborah Brautigam said this reflected the changing nature of China’s overseas contracting, which is increasingly focused on large, state-backed projects.
She pointed out that the large number of Chinese workers in Tanzania may be related to the ongoing construction of standard gauge railways.
By contrast, Angola has historically been the largest recipient of Chinese loans in Africa, often backed by oil, and serves as a case study in early engagement patterns.
Hosting more than 50,000 workers in 2013, the boom collapsed in 2014 after the collapse of oil prices and the subsequent credit crunch in China. As a result, the number of regular workers fell to just 6,484 in 2023, having recovered slightly to 7,444 last year due to new energy projects.
Meanwhile, workers are being evacuated from Ethiopia, Nigeria and Niger as major infrastructure phases are completed and the knock-on effects of political instability are felt.
Brautigam said she was in Ethiopia in September and was informed of the exodus of Chinese investors and workers due to the ongoing conflict and the government’s precarious financial situation.
Similarly, Brautigam said that in Niger, the exodus of workers was closely linked to the conflict that followed the 2023 military coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and multiple attacks by rebel groups.
Brautigam suggested that Nigeria adopt a similar model. “I think the same is true in Nigeria, where security challenges have been intensifying.”
Looking ahead, the modernization of the historic Tazara Railway is expected to attract an influx of more Chinese technicians. When it was built in the early 1970s, it required about 50,000 Chinese workers, It marks the beginning of China’s long-term infrastructure construction in Africa.
Researcher Deborah Brautigam said the large number of Chinese workers in Tanzania may be related to the ongoing construction of standard gauge railways. Photo credit: Reuters alt=Researcher Deborah Brautigam said the large number of Chinese workers in Tanzania may be related to the ongoing construction of standard gauge railways. Image source: Reuters>
Xue Kai, a Beijing-based investment lawyer, observed that despite the recent rise, the number of reported workers is still in a “post-COVID-19 stable state” and well below 2019 levels.
Citing a report from Engineering News-Record, he said this was not due to a decline in market share, as Chinese companies would still account for 56.3% of international contractor revenue in Africa in 2023.
“A more reasonable explanation for the decline in the number of workers since the COVID-19 epidemic is labor localization. Chinese construction companies are increasingly relying on local African labor rather than importing Chinese workers,” Xue said.
He added that the official data set included only dispatched personnel, saying that Nigeria and Kenya’s population estimates had increased since 2017.
Current estimates show there are 100,000 Chinese in Nigeria and about 50,000 in Kenya – up from about 40,000 in both countries in 2017 – suggesting an increase in the numbers of long-term residents and independent migrants.
“China’s total population may still be growing through entrepreneurs and long-term residents, who are not included in the National Bureau of Statistics’ worker statistics,” Xue said, referring to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
He said this shift toward independent migration could have a positive impact on community relations, as entrepreneurs are seen as creators of local opportunities rather than competitors for technical roles.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, explore the SCMP app or visit SCMP on Facebook and twitter Page. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
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