Rivian Cars (NASDAQ: RIVN) The stock comes rolled up – although the roll up is a bit wonky.
The electric truck maker’s shares have been publicly traded for more than four years. However, they have mostly been trading since their late 2021 initial public offering (IPO) down. As a result, Rivian stock’s valuation fell 81% at the time of IPO, compared with a 47% valuation gain in 2018. S&P 500 Index.
However, Rivian stock appears to be enjoying a resurgence of late.
2025 is a strange year for this situation, since Rivian is an electric vehicle company and Congress just repealed the $7,500 electric vehicle (EV) tax credit this year. Regardless, Rivian stock will outperform the S&P 500 by 2x by 2025, returning shareholders more than 32%, compared with the S&P 500’s 14.2% return.
Admittedly, the proportions of the image above make it hard to notice. However, if you zoom in on the last 12 months, it’s even clearer how Rivian has outperformed the S&P 500 this year:
How does Rivian do this? Without tax credits, and with competition from other companies, what are the chances that the electric truck company can maintain its momentum? Tesla And the Cybertruck?
It’s hard to say. In the company’s third-quarter earnings report last month, Rivian reported a 78% year-over-year sales increase and positive gross profit margin. Rivian produced just 10,720 trucks during the quarter but sold 13,201, meaning the company successfully sold off inventory on its lot.
However, Rivian still lost $1.2 billion in the quarter and burned $421 million in negative free cash flow. This comes in the final quarter, which included federal tax incentives to encourage sales, which brought a lot of business to Rivian.
Rivian may not be so lucky in the fourth quarter and subsequent quarters. Management has high hopes of starting sales of the new R2 electric SUV in early 2026, noting that its new paint shop will have “a total annual production capacity of [paint] 215,000” — and the company hopes to sell about 42,500 Rivians this year.
While Rivian may be able to continue expanding its business even without government support, that’s not guaranteed. The fact is Ford Motor Company Just exiting the electric truck market is an unexpected stroke of good fortune that could help Rivian succeed – unless that’s a sign from above that the electric truck market isn’t a good place to be right now!
Even analysts who think Rivian is worth owning don’t think the company will report its first profit under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) until 2032 at the earliest. However, there’s a long way between now and then, and with Rivian’s cash dwindling rapidly, I think the odds of Rivian making the trip are less than 50-50.
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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Can RIVN Stock Beat the Market in 2026? Originally posted by The Motley Fool