Bitcoin has broken through the $74,000 resistance four times in two weeks, and this time the move is more than just a short squeeze.
The largest cryptocurrency was trading just above $74,000 on Monday morning, up 2.9% in the past 24 hours and 9.7% for the week. Ethereum surged 7.7% in 24 hours and surged 14.3% on the week to $2,261, its strongest weekly performance in months. Solana rose 5.6% on the day and 12% on the week to $93.
Dogecoin hit $0.10 for the first time since early March, rising 4.6% daily and 10.6% weekly. BNB rose 3.8% to $683, a weekly gain of 9.5%. XRP rose 4.2% to $1.47, up 8.9% in seven days.
The catalyst is a shift in tone from multiple directions at once. Trump said the United States was talking to Iran, but Tehran denied calling for talks or a ceasefire. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz was closed only to “enemy” ships, a marked softening of the comprehensive blockade already in place.
Two tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas to India passed through the strait on Sunday, the first commercial shipments since the war began.
Oil reflects changes in sentiment. Brent crude prices were around $104, having climbed as high as $106.50 following the strike on Kharg Island, but fell back as headlines emerged from the Strait of Hormuz. WTI falls below $100. The dollar fell 0.3%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, rising for the first time in five days. MSCI’s global stock index stabilized after three days of losses.
For cryptocurrencies, the combination of oil easing, a weaker dollar, and even signs of easing tensions is just the macro cocktail to loosen the liquidity chains that have been suffocating risk assets since the war began.
The weekly figures are the most impressive since before the war. Bitcoin’s 9.7% gain is strong, but the outperformance of altcoins suggests risk appetite is well and truly returning. When Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin by 4.6 percentage points per week and Solana outperforms Bitcoin by 2.3 percentage points per week, capital is rolling down the risk curve rather than hiding in Bitcoin.
The backdrop for the March 17-18 Fed meeting is different from a week ago.
Oil prices remain high, but the Strait of Hormuz shows signs of reopening, changing inflation calculations. The dot plot and Powell’s press conference on Wednesday will determine whether the market’s hopes for a rate cut survive or are dashed.