Bitcoin’s Price action suggests that momentum from U.S.-Iran ceasefire headlines is fading and markets are looking for substantive progress to ease war-related pressure on the global economy.
Earlier today, the largest cryptocurrency briefly topped $76,000, but then resumed Tuesday’s pattern of volatility. Previously, the stock price rose 10%, mainly driven by news of a ceasefire between Iran and the United States a week ago.
However, while optimism remains and President Donald Trump says the conflict is nearing an end, progress in talks to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. The Strait of Hormuz was a chokepoint that accounted for 20% of global oil flows before the war.
QCP Capital, one of the world’s largest digital asset market makers, said in an email: “An extension of the ceasefire is no longer enough. The market needs real progress, such as restoring energy flows, compressing crude oil premiums and more pronounced deflation.”
“Until then, this remains a story of partial normalization rather than full repair. Constructive, but not yet comfortable.”
Traders should keep a close eye on oil prices as signs of normalization may first appear in energy markets. WTI recently traded near weekly lows of $87.50 and Brent crude traded near $90, levels it has held since April 8.
The continued decline in the 30-day Implied Volatility Index for Bitcoin and Ethereum suggests traders are expecting material progress soon.
Meanwhile, solana (SOL) and Volatility is likely to increase as open interest in futures contracts related to these coins has climbed to multi-week highs. These increases indicate increasing demand for leveraged exposure, which tends to amplify price movements due to liquidations and heightened market volatility.
“Solana has significantly outperformed the market over the past day, trying to bounce off important long-term support lines but has been unable to do so for over two months,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email. “Only when price consolidates above $105 can we declare victory for the bulls, at which point we can talk about its return above the 200-week moving average.”
In traditional markets, the MOVE index, which measures volatility in U.S. Treasuries, has fallen to 65%, reversing a war-induced surge to 115% in March. This is positive for risk assets, as stability in the U.S. bond market that underpins global finance helps ease credit and financial conditions. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market. For a complete list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
what is trend
today’s signal
The chart shows Bitcoin’s hourly price action since March 31 in candlestick format, highlighting the asset’s steady upward trajectory from around $65,700 to around $76,000. The chart looks bullish, with higher lows continuing, but there’s a problem.
Price briefly broke above $76,000 at least twice during this uptrend, but both attempts failed to produce a decisive breakout. From a technical analysis perspective, this indicates that a double top pattern is forming, where two peaks form around the same level, indicating that the bullish momentum may be exhausted.
If the price falls below $73,300 (the low formed between the two peaks), the double top pattern will be confirmed, indicating room for further decline to $70,000.
Conversely, a sustained break above $76,000 may attract more traders and strengthen the case for a rally towards $88,000.