Bitcoin trading starts here: Stay patient until the next leg higher.
- Hougan expects Bitcoin to trade between approximately $75,000 and $100,000 in the first half of this year.
- “There’s still a lot of Bitcoin being sold around $100,000,” he said of the options market positioning.
- A breakthrough later this year is more likely as regulatory clarity improves and macro risks are priced in.
Why precious metals are important: Gold’s rise reinforces Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.
- Hogan said the surge in gold prices reflected global concerns about fiat currencies and the risk of asset seizures.
- He added that silver looks like a late-stage momentum trade, similar to a speculative altcoin rally.
- Over time, he expects these dynamics to focus demand on Bitcoin as a superior form of self-custody and settlement.
Central banks are slowly circling: Interest is rising, but adoption is still years away.
- Hougan said Bitwise has held meetings with central banks in multiple regions.
- The agencies are still asking basic questions about Bitcoin’s security and risks, not implementation details.
- He expects central banks to eventually own Bitcoin – possibly more than gold – but said that could take 10 to 20 years.
Bitcoin call options worth $6.5 million: A long-term bet on monetary reality.
- Hougan reiterated his view that Bitcoin could reach a price of approximately $6.5 million per coin within the next 20 years.
- The core assumption is not accelerated adoption but continuation of global debt growth, money printing and currency debasement, he said.
- He believes that Bitcoin is an advanced version of gold and that central banks are only beginning to understand its role.
- “As long as the future is not too different from the past 15 years,” Hougan said, “we can get there. It’s just a matter of time.”
Zoom out: Compressing volatility is critical for institutions.
- Hogan said the decline in Bitcoin volatility will be critical for institutional adoption.
- He often tells allocators that Bitcoin is now less volatile than Nvidia stock, which many already hold.
- Bitwise expects volatility to continue to decline, with Bitcoin remaining the fastest-growing major financial asset.
Final shot: Be decisive in the short term and firm in the long term.
- Hogan said regulatory clarity in Washington could accelerate the next bull phase but is not necessary for the cryptocurrency’s long-term trajectory.
- Even if it’s not clear, he expects ETFs, stablecoins and tokenization to continue to expand.
- “The fundamentals are really good,” he said. “The stars have aligned for a wonderful 2026.”
Watch the full interview.