Bitcoin prices fell sharply over the weekend, falling below $78,000 – its lowest level since April – as profit-taking collided with reduced liquidity and a scarcity of new buyers.
Traders told CoinDesk that a rally once underpinned by corporate demand, particularly Bitcoin purchases from Strategy, has lost steam, leaving the market vulnerable to forced selling and derivatives liquidations.
For some market analysts, Saturday’s decline fits into a broader bearish pattern that has been emerging for months. Eric Crown, a former options trader at NYSE Arca, has argued since late October that Bitcoin is in a sideways downward phase and that optimism about a return to new highs (or a shift from the metal to crypto) is false “hope” for bulls.
“That’s been my view from that point on [the] At the end of October, BTC was in a sideways and downward phase…I don’t think 80K was a macro low for Bitcoin. Crown, who now posts updates on the cryptocurrency market with more than 200,000 subscribers, told CoinDesk, stressing that the recent price action could be part of a larger correction mechanism.
Movements in the options market also support this bearish sentiment. Options traders are now increasingly betting that the price will fall below $75,000 and are abandoning bullish bets reaching $100,000. So much so that the number of active Bitcoin put contracts listed on the Deribit platform at the $75,000 level currently has a dollar value of $1.159 billion, almost equal to the $1.168 billion in so-called notional open interest locked in $100,000 calls.
Read more: Here’s why Bitcoin traders are now betting on billions falling below $75,000 and bets on price growth
bearish signal
Crone pointed to some technical indicators that have historically signaled deeper corrections.
The monthly MACD (technical trading indicator) crossed downwards in November, a rare sign that preceded prolonged downturns in previous cycles.
Additionally, the weekly 21 to 55 EMA (another technical indicator) recently entered bearish territory. When this happens, it often results in months of losses. The 2025 annual chart close is a “shooting star,” a candlestick pattern that often signals a mid-term reversal.
Bitcoin hits $50,000?
Worse for bulls, Bitcoin has been diverging from traditional markets since October, falling amid strength in stocks and other risk assets — a pattern that Crown believes is typical of late-cycle risk-off behavior.
“People tend to sell the more speculative assets first,” he said.
Beyond technicals, Crown also highlighted the speculative washout from the October crash, which wiped out many leveraged altcoin positions and made traders wary of re-entering the highs.
Read more: Cryptocurrency’s $19 Billion ‘10/10’ Nightmare: Why Everyone Blames Binance for Bitcoin Crash
While not as extreme as some cyclical bears, Crown said Bitcoin could drop to lower levels before stabilizing – possibly to the mid-$50,000 to low-$60,000 area.
In fact, he stated that this range represents an area where he personally hopes to increase his long-term positioning, viewing the current market as a potential value accumulation phase rather than the end of a broader cycle for cryptocurrencies.