Bitcoin prices have been almost flat over the past 24 hours, hovering near $67,600. But the 30 days of losses told a different story. Prices fell by about 27% month-on-month. A sudden intraday pause may not signal a recovery. This could be a brief stop before the next descent.
One of the strongest holder groups is signaling positive allocations. These patterns match historical settings prior to the substantial adjustment. The danger is hiding in plain sight.
Bitcoin has broken out of a bear flag pattern. The structure has approximately a 40% risk of collision from the point of failure. The mode itself looks weak. But then came bigger things.
On February 14, the exchange whale ratio surged to 0.81. This is the highest reading in a year. This metric tracks the ratio of top 10 whale inflows to total exchange inflows.
History shows this pattern repeats itself with terrifying accuracy. In March 2025, when Bitcoin was trading around $84,100, the ratio reached 0.62. Prices surged around 3.7% to $87,200 over the week as whales took the lead. But by early April, as distribution began, Bitcoin plunged about 12.6% to $76,200.
The same thing happened in November. The ratio surged to 0.70 as the price approached $88,400. Bitcoin rose about 5.2% to $93,000 before plunging about 7.4% to $86,000 by mid-December. The pattern is clear. Whales take positions early, prices rise briefly, and then begin to sell off en masse.
Now, the ratio reached 0.81 in mid-February, when Bitcoin was trading near $69,700. This is the highest number of whales in 12 months. The price has started to fall and is currently around $67,000. But the ratio remains high at 0.65.
Based on past adjustments, this level is still within the historical profit booking area. Therefore, another rapid rebound in Bitcoin prices followed by a deeper correction may not be underestimated.
A hidden bearish divergence formed on the 12-hour chart between February 8 and February 16. During this period, prices made lower highs. The momentum indicator, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is simultaneously making higher highs. This combination signals a continuation of the pullback rather than a reversal.
All three signals point to a deeper correction. But why blame whales specifically for this weakness?
Some may argue that the surge in exchange whale ratios is due to a decrease in total exchange inflows. But actual whale address counts prove otherwise.
The number of whale addresses holding 1,000 BTC or more dropped from 1,959 on January 22 to 1,939 currently. 20 whale addresses were lost during the correction. These holders did not disappear randomly. They allocate shares when prices fall. Addresses drop as prices drop. They didn’t buy the decline. They create lows.
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The pattern shows whales temporarily riding the price rally and then selling during the correction. Their faith is weak. When strong holders accumulate holdings during a period of weakness, buying pressure builds. When they are issued during a weak period, the decline accelerates. Bitcoin’s 27% monthly decline makes sense when you see 20 whale addresses or at least 20,000 BTC exiting.
But the real danger arises when looking at where supply is concentrated. The distribution of UTXO realized prices shows the clustering of cost bases across the market. It reveals the price level that creates the most supply. These areas act as strong support or resistance depending on the market direction.
The strongest cluster is currently located near $66,800. This level maintains the greatest supply concentration at current prices. It represents the largest cost base area in the near future. A breakout requires tremendous selling pressure. Retail traders do not have the scale to handle such a huge supply. Only whales possess this kind of firepower, making them potentially the “big bads” in Bitcoin’s price.
The problem lies here. These whales have begun to spread. The exchange whale ratio proves this. This is confirmed by the drop in the number of addresses. They are actively selling to the market. The current price of nearly $67,600 is very close to the $66,800 price range.
The first major support level is located at $66,600. This is closely related to the $66,800 URPD cluster. Both levels represent the same technology and supply areas. Bitcoin is currently trading just 1.6% above this key support level. If whales continue to be distributed, this level will not last long.
A break below $66,600 would open the way to $60,000. This implies approximately 12% additional downside from current levels. Bitcoin briefly touched this area on February 6 before rebounding. But the setup looks much weaker now than it did then. Whale proportions have not reached annual highs. Hidden bearish divergence has not yet formed.
Now, all of these warnings are flashing simultaneously, while prices hover above the strongest supply clusters. A break above $66,600 could trigger a cascading sell-off due to failure of the URPD zone. Holders with a cost basis approaching $66,800 will panic. Leveraged longs ready for recovery will be liquidated. The move towards $60,000 could be faster than the initial crash.
On the bright side, Bitcoin needs a clear break above $71,600 to show real strength. This would invalidate the current bearish structure and suggest that buyers are regaining control. Full mode failure occurs only above $79,300. Until Bitcoin regains this level, a bear flag breakdown remains active and downside risks dominate.
Read original story by Ananda Banerjee on beincrypto.com Bitcoin’s ‘big bad’ revealed – Year’s highest whale indicator could push price to $60,000