Bitcoin Bitcoin was trading near $77,733 as of noon Hong Kong time, little changed in the past 24 hours after falling to $76,685 during U.S. trading hours and failing to hold above $78,000, according to CoinDesk.
Derivatives positions suggest the recent sell-off may be more of a leverage rush than the start of a broader market collapse. Open interest, a measure of open leveraged futures positions, remained relatively stable, while funding rates remained low or negative, suggesting traders were not actively buying bullish bets ahead of the decline.
Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, told CoinDesk: “Prior to this, there was no significant accumulation of leveraged longs, which means that most of the liquidations in this decline were leveraged funds trying to catch short-term bottoms. Secondly, this shows that we are not in the midst of a structural trend reversal downward. The temporary bottom of $75,000 to $77,000 is still clear.”
The bigger issue is macro, he said: Investors are reducing risk as long-term yields rise, oil and inflation risks remain in focus, and “there is no compelling reason for new capital to come to the market at the moment”.
CoinGlass data shows that over the past 24 hours, cryptocurrency liquidations have reached $200 million, with long and short positions being almost evenly divided, suggesting that this move is less a unilateral capitulation and more a two-way move in the market.
Sun pointed out that the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yield, which recently exceeded 5%, is a more important pressure point. Higher long-term yields tend to increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, while tightening broader financial conditions, putting pressure on speculative assets.
The next catalyst may come from geopolitics.
Sun said a substantial easing of U.S.-Iran tensions could lower oil prices and inflation expectations, ease pressure on yields and give Bitcoin room to rebound.
But if yields remain high and geopolitical risks persist, Bitcoin could fall into what he calls a defensive range-bound market, with the $75,000 to $77,000 area serving as key near-term support.