Alex Thorn, head of company-wide research at Galaxy Digital, said that while the company maintains a positive long-term outlook, 2026 may be one of the most difficult years to predict for Bitcoin.
In a Dec. 21 X post, Thorn said the year ahead was “too chaotic to predict,” citing a mix of macro uncertainty, political risk, and uneven momentum in the cryptocurrency market. Thorn said the comments were based on Galaxy Research’s Dec. 18 report “Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, DeFi and Artificial Intelligence Forecasts to 2026,” which outlined the company’s expectations for the cryptocurrency market and institutional adoption.
At the time of writing, Thorne said that the broader crypto market is already deep in a bear market phase and Bitcoin is struggling to re-establish sustained bullish momentum. He said downside risks remain until asset prices move decisively above the $100,000 to $105,000 range.
What signals are the options market sending?
Derivatives markets highlight this uncertainty. Thorn said Bitcoin options pricing implies roughly equal odds of a drastically different outcome next year, with traders giving similar odds for prices near $70,000 or $130,000 in mid-2026 and $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of the year.
The options market is widely used by institutional investors to hedge future price risk, and such a wide range suggests professionals are preparing for large price swings rather than a clear directional trend.
Signs of structural maturity
At the same time, Thorne points to signs of structural change beneath the surface. He said Bitcoin’s long-term volatility, a measure of how much price moves over time, has been declining. He attributes the shift in part to the growth of institutional strategies such as option coverage and income-generating plans, which tend to dampen extreme price swings.
This evolution is also visible in Bitcoin’s volatility smile, which describes how option prices change with strike levels. Thorne said downside protection is currently priced higher than upside exposure, a pattern that is more common in mature macro assets like equities or commodities than in high-growth markets.
Why a quiet year might not matter
For Thorn, these signals help explain why possible range-bound volatility or “boring” in 2026 won’t derail Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Even if prices move lower or near longer-term technical levels (such as the 200-week moving average), he expects institutional adoption and market maturation to continue.
Beyond short-term price action, Galaxy’s long-term conviction hinges on deeper institutional consolidation.
The company said in a report on December 18 that a major asset allocation platform could include Bitcoin in standard model portfolios, a move that would embed the asset in a default investment strategy rather than through discretionary trading. This inclusion will continue to guide BTC flows into Bitcoin regardless of market cycles, reinforcing Galaxy’s view that structural adoption, rather than near-term volatility, will influence outcomes in 2027 and beyond.
Thorne believes that expanded institutional access, potential easing of monetary conditions, and demand for fiat currency alternatives could see Bitcoin follow in gold’s footsteps as a hedge against currency devaluation. Galaxy predicts that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.