Bitcoin fell back to $68,589 in Asia on Tuesday after Monday’s ceasefire-fueled rally faded, with U.S. President Donald Trump setting a Tuesday night deadline for Iran to reach a deal and threatening to “destroy all bridges in Iran by 12 o’clock tomorrow night” if no deal is reached.
The largest cryptocurrency has fallen 0.6% in 24 hours after hitting $69,350 on Monday, when an Axios report on a possible 45-day ceasefire briefly pushed prices above $69,000. This optimism lasted about 12 hours. Ethereum fell 1% to $2,104, Solana’s SOL fell 2.7% to $79.75, XRP fell 1.6% to $1.32, and Dogecoin fell 2.2% to $0.09. BNB was relatively unchanged at $598.
The pattern of the past six weeks continues in textbook fashion, with positive headlines briefly boosting prices before negative comments eliminate any chance of a long-term recovery.
“This move looks less like a shift in fundamentals and more like positioning offside,” said Diana Pires, chief commercial officer at sFOX. “Market sentiment was heavily skewed toward the downside heading into the weekend, with growing short interest across the market. This position will have to be unwound as soon as ceasefire headlines emerge.”
Monday’s rally generated $196.7 million in short positions being liquidated as bearish traders were influenced by reports of a ceasefire. Tuesday’s withdrawal reportedly came after Iran conveyed its rejection of a ceasefire offer to mediator Pakistan, demanding a permanent end to the war, lifting of sanctions and reconstruction in addition to safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. crude oil prices climbed above $112 as Trump warned that the military could shut down all Iranian power plants if a deal was not reached, although he said talks were “going well.” Brent crude oil prices were near $115.66, up 2.9% on the day. Elsewhere, despite the whipsaw, the S&P 500 posted its longest gain since January, with stocks holding on to modest gains amid volatility.
The macro backdrop remains uncertain. U.S. service industry data showed that economic expansion slowed in March, employment shrank at its worst pace since 2023, and input prices accelerated. These factors give the Federal Reserve no clear reason to cut interest rates or keep interest rates unchanged. This week’s key inflation data will further illustrate the situation.
Bitcoin has remained trading between $65,000 and $73,000 throughout the conflict. Every rally fails at the upper limit, and every sell-off hovers at the lower limit. What happens at midnight on Tuesday, when Trump’s deadline arrives, will determine which end of the range is tested next.