By Francisco Rodrigues (All times Eastern unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin Gold prices are stuck in a tight range around $66,600 ahead of the Good Friday holiday as geopolitical tensions and changing macro expectations dampen prices.
While the cryptocurrency has seen modest gains over the past 24 hours, it has failed to break above $67,000. The company is in trouble as U.S. President Donald Trump signals a tougher stance on Iran, now threatening the country’s infrastructure.
Spot market Brent crude oil prices hit $120 a barrel, their highest level since 2008, due to the ongoing crisis and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil shipments, is effectively closed.
A surge in energy prices has pushed up inflation expectations and weakened the case for interest rate cuts, which has been a key support for Bitcoin’s recent gains. Inflation in Europe has risen to 2.5%, driven by energy costs.
This pressure reveals divergences in market structure. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have remained consistent, with net inflows of $22 million this week. But data from CryptoQuant shows that total apparent demand has turned negative, with large holders allocating more than they have accumulated.
Data shows that wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have lost nearly 188,000 BTC since last year’s peak. Nearly half of all Bitcoins in circulation are at a loss at current prices.
Liquidity will remain thin heading into the long weekend. This leaves Bitcoin exposed to potentially higher volatility based on developments in the Middle East or macro-related statements. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptocurrency
- Macro
- April 3, 8:30 am: U.S. non-farm payrolls in March are expected to be 48K (expected -92K)
- April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. unemployment rate in March is estimated at 4.5% (previous value 4.4%)
- April 3, 10:00 am: US March ISM Services PMI (previous value 56.1)
- income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
Token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- The SSV Network DAO is voting on two proposals to integrate the ENS name into core protocol contracts to enhance phishing security and establish a soft fee floor for public operators to ensure economic sustainability. Voting closes on April 3.
- Unlock
- Token issuance
Meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
market trend
- BTC is down 0.35% since 4pm ET on Thursday to $66,785.73 (24 hours: +0.65%)
- ETH remains unchanged at $2,058.20 (24 hours: +0.94%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 0.26% to 1,902.32 (24 hours: +0.80%)
- The comprehensive pledge rate of Ethereum CESR increased by 1 basis point to 2.77%
- The BTC financing interest rate on Binance is -0.0007% (annualized -0.7731%)
- DXY unchanged at 99.99
- Gold futures rose 1.07% to $4,701.30
- Silver futures rose 0.60% to $73.17
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.26% at 53,123.49 points
- The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.70% at 25,116.53 points
- The FTSE 100 index remained unchanged at 10,436.29 points
- The Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.26% to 5,678.00
- The Dow closed down 0.13% on Thursday at 46,504.67 points
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69 points
- The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.46% at 33,108.20
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate fell 1 basis point to 4.31%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.12% to 6,613.00
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.10% to 24,167.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.10% to 46,678.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- Bitcoin dominance: 58.54% (-0.24%)
- Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.030821 (0.23%)
- Computing power (seven-day moving average): 997 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $30.68
- Total fee: 2.54 BTC / $170,134
- CME Futures Open Interest: 106,230 BTC
- BTC in gold: 15.9 ounces
- Bitcoin and gold market capitalization: 4.46%
technical analysis
- This chart shows the daily fluctuations in Tether’s dominance rate in the form of candlesticks. Dominance rate represents the stablecoin’s share of the overall cryptocurrency market.
- After a temporary pullback or counter-trend correction, dominance rates rise again. This breakout suggests that the broader upward trend in dominance may have resumed.
- This has a bearish impact on the broader market, as USD-pegged assets like Tether typically dominate during market-wide sell-offs.
crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Thursday at $171.46 (–0.88%), unchanged after hours
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +0.28% at $17.69
- MARA Holdings (MARA): Closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), -1.03% at $8.62
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $12.86 (+2.47%), unchanged from $12.86
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), –0.62% Closed at $16.13
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), unchanged at $8.80
- Exodus Sports (EXOD): Closed at $6.10 (–8.68%), -0.80% at $6.05
- CoinShares Bitcoin Miner ETF (WGMI): Closed at $35.76 (+2.58%), –0.17% at $35.70
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Closed at $90.26 (–0.53%), +0.60% at $90.80
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), –0.19% at $36.30
Cryptocurrency Treasury Corporation
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $119.83 (–2.40%), +0.34% at $120.24
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): Closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +0.10% Closed at $9.76
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): Closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +0.32% at $6.21
- Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), –2.12% at $0.95
- Lite Strategies (LITS): Closed at $1.12 (–0.88%), unchanged from $1.12
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net traffic: $9 million
- Cumulative net flow: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings are approximately 1.28 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily Net Traffic: -$71.2M
- Cumulative net flow: $11.51 billion
- The total amount of ETH held is approximately 5.69 million.
Source: Farside Investors
when you are asleep
French ship transits Strait of Hormuz for first time in Western Europe during Iran’s war (European News): The news could encourage other airlines to resume operations if the corridor proves reliable in the coming days, after Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Garibabadi announced a deal with Oman to ensure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. deports Chinese drug fugitives, sign of stabilizing ties (Wall Street Journal): It is the first such case in recent years and is being described as a rare move showing cooperation ahead of a Trump-Xi summit planned for next month.
Iran strikes Gulf energy facilities as Trump warns of further attacks (Bloomberg): Iran struck more sites in Arab Gulf states, including Kuwait, on Friday morning, hours after Trump issued new threats against Iranian infrastructure to pressure Tehran to launch peace talks.
Japan FX heat rises as volatility rises, signaling readiness for action (Reuters): The yen is trading close to the psychologically key $160 mark, hovering at levels that have raised concerns about market intervention, underscoring growing unease about the speed and scale of its decline.