Bitcoin Bitcoin price climbed to nearly $70,000 as traders reacted to signs of a possible de-escalation in the Iran war and liquidated more than $270 million in shorts amid a short squeeze.
Cryptocurrency prices as well as stock index futures and stocks rose as the United States and Iran are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire, Axios reported. The report raised hopes that hostilities could be de-escalated, potentially reducing risks for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
This boosted appetite for risk assets across the market, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) falling. This retreat is being amplified by reports that Pakistan is brokering the so-called Islamabad Accord.
Under the agreement, the ceasefire will take effect immediately and the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. Still, the market needs convincing.
Polymarket puts the chance of a ceasefire this month at around 30%, up from 18% before the Islamabad Accord was announced. Oil prices remain high and the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
If a ceasefire is achieved and the conflict subsides, a relief rally could further benefit risk assets. For now, though, traders appear to be skeptical of the headlines.
Derivatives positions
- Notional open interest (OI) for Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) rose 7% and 11% respectively, outpacing spot price gains. This suggests new capital is flowing into the market, potentially chasing bullish exposure, as funding rates and cumulative volume deltas remain positive for BTC and ETH.
- Among altcoins, ADA, AVAX, and LINK stand out with double-digit growth in open interest and positive funding rates. In contrast, sentiment appears bearish for BCH and HYPE, which have negative funding rates.
- Bitcoin’s volatility collapse continues, signaling calm in the market and supporting bullish price action. The 30-day implied volatility index BVIV fell below 50% for the first time since early February. The Ethereum index EVIV also fell to its lowest level in weeks.
- On Deribit, Bitcoin’s $60,000 put and $80,000 call are the most popular options bets, with each option having a notional open interest of $1.4 billion at press time. Therefore, these are key levels to watch as they represent areas where traders are in a strong position for downside protection or upside participation.
- Therefore, volatility could rise sharply if the price moves beyond the $60,000 to $80,000 range.
- Overall, options market sentiment remains cautious despite bullish signs for futures. BTC and ETH puts remain more expensive than calls, indicating strong demand for downside hedging. Some of the bias in puts also stems from continued coverage of calls, a strategy that generates returns.
token talk
- Algorand’s ALGO token has surged nearly 50% in the past 30 days after a Google quantum artificial intelligence research paper highlighted its approach to quantum-resistant security.
- Google’s report examines how blockchain could defend against the future threat of quantum computers, which could undermine current encryption methods. Algorand has attracted widespread attention for its use of FALCON, the post-quantum signature scheme chosen by the US standards body NIST.
- The network already uses the system for functions such as proof of state to confirm ledger updates as well as certain transaction types.
- To date, ALGO has risen from about $0.08 to nearly $0.12, giving it a market capitalization of over $1 billion. The stock has gained more than 7.3% in the past 24 hours amid a broader market rally.