Republicans breathed a sigh of relief this weekend and were cautiously optimistic that President Donald Trump had found a way to end the war with Iran.
With oil prices falling below $90 a barrel, the stock market hitting record highs and gasoline prices down 8 cents a gallon this week, some are feeling a breath of fresh air for the first time since the war broke out in late February.
“Everyone knows the historical trends. But at least lower gas prices, putting the war positively behind them, could restore some of the momentum after the State of the Union,” said Matt Gorman, a Republican communications strategist at Target Victory. “Republicans are very eager to fight back.”
Whether Trump and Iran can give them that chance remains to be seen. Iranian military officials said on Saturday they were once again “tightly controlling” the Strait of Hormuz due to an ongoing U.S. blockade, a sign of how fragile and fleeting progress can be. The move came as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gunboats opened fire on an oil tanker trying to pass through the strait.
While it may seem too early to pop the champagne — Iran, for example, has also denied agreeing to transfer enriched uranium to the United States, as Trump claimed — the relief is proportionate to how tragic things seemed just days ago. Republicans say the trick now is to keep distractions to a minimum — no small feat when a single social media post from the party leader can spark new controversy. Success also depends on the government’s theory of a quick economic rebound proving correct – and voters feeling relieved.
“In the short term, there’s certainly some relief, but mini political grenades are still challenging,” one Republican donor who spoke on condition of anonymity put it candidly. “Instead of being able to [to] Focusing solely on tax refunds this week, members were fielded questions about the Pope and ballrooms. “
The frayed nerves underscore how damaging the past few weeks have been for Republican supporters and strategists. A war with Iran, never popular, undermines MAGA’s foundation and raises questions about the president’s stance on core movement principles. Polls suggest the House may lose and the Senate may get involved. A spike in gas prices could undo one of the president’s signature achievements, a massive tax cut that was supposed to line voters’ pockets and stimulate the economy. Along the way, a feud with the pope, setbacks in the war and Viktor Orban’s defeat in Hungary have left the impression that the government is at the mercy of events rather than controlling them.
“The Iran issue remains a contributing factor to voters’ broader fundamental concerns about the economy and global stability,” said Kevin Madden, a longtime Republican communications strategist and partner at Penta, a Washington-based consulting firm. “It’s good that tensions are easing. However, in the context of the 2026 midterm elections, the main consideration is how durable today’s posture is.”
The durability of Iran and Lebanon’s dueling ceasefire is uncertain at best, but Tehran’s decision earlier this week to allow ships through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with pledges from European leaders to help secure a ceasefire, has given hope to Republicans who see their fate tied to oil prices.
“Congressional Republicans are breathing a sigh of relief today,” said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo, R-Fla. “It looks like they’ll be able to put the Iran conflict in the rearview mirror; there’s still plenty of time to get voters back on tax cuts and other issues. It’s going to be a steep uphill climb, but now they have a chance.”
White House spokesman Tyler Rogers said Friday’s good news supported the president’s contention that the economic damage from the war would be short-lived.
“President Trump continues to deliver on his promises to the American people, proving the ‘fearmongers’ wrong time and time again. The president remains focused on keeping the American people safe, lowering costs for working families, and making our country stronger than ever,” Rogers said. “The president has always been clear that these are short-term, temporary disruptions that will be resolved through the unprecedented success of Epic Fury and subsequent ongoing peace negotiations.”
Trump was also in a celebratory mood. Trump told reporters on Friday in Arizona, the second and final stop on his Southwest tour of key states to promote his tax cuts, that it was a “big day.”
“We’ll see how it plays out, but it should be good, there were some very good discussions,” Trump said. “Negotiations are going on, they’re going to be over the weekend, and a lot of good things are happening.”
Trump’s mood seemed upbeat as he spoke at the Turning Point America event, touting projects he considered the highlights of his second term such as lowering the trade deficit, ending DEI and cutting taxes, and explicitly linked those successes to the need to win the midterm elections.
“You’ve got to go out and vote Republican, we need this,” Trump said before enjoying the day’s good news. “Did you see the price of oil go down today? Did you see the price go down today?”
Still, not everyone shares Trump’s enthusiasm, and some Republicans worry Trump-sized shoes are about to drop.
“I would say I’m cautiously optimistic and not completely convinced that this is going to continue,” said one Republican operative working in a swing state.
Despite the euphoria, some Republicans, especially those less enamored with Trump’s leadership, still believe the deluge of good news hasn’t stopped the blue wave from heading their way.
Former Rep. Ken Buck, a Colorado Republican, deadpanned: “Ending the war with Iran, leading to Iran giving up its highly enriched uranium and shutting down its military nuclear program, would increase the chances of Republicans losing the House by just a 15-20 vote.”