Permanent bears, like their super-bullish counterparts, like to shoehorn patterns into the chaos to bolster their pessimism.
Take Michael Burry, the “Big Short” prognosticator known for his doomsday predictions, who is now comparing Bitcoin’s ongoing bear market to 2022’s brutal plunge, ominously suggesting that this crash will get worse.
In an article published on Thursday’s Asia Morning X, Burry highlighted the similarities between BTC’s fall from the October high of $126,000 to $70,000 and Bitcoin’s late 2021 and 2022 plunge, claiming in a chart that the pattern so far matches exactly.
In previous bear markets, Bitcoin fell from around $35,000 to below $20,000 before stabilizing — a move that, if mapped to today’s price levels, would mean risk to lows of $50,000.
Burry didn’t elaborate on the goal, but the visual comparison was enough to reignite the debate about whether Bitcoin is repeating an old playbook, or whether the analogy is overstretched.
Analysts and traders question whether a single historical instance is enough to constitute a meaningful pattern.
“If it happens once, is this a pattern?” asked trading house GSR, reflecting broader skepticism about simulation-driven market forecasts.
This criticism goes beyond semantics, however, and Bitcoin’s 2021-22 collapse unfolded under very different conditions, characterized by aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve, a collapse of the cryptocurrency’s native leverage, and heavy participation from retail investors.
Today’s market, on the other hand, is defined by spot Bitcoin ETFs, deeper institutional liquidity, and a macro backdrop that’s less driven by interest rate hikes and more by cross-asset moves related to equities, commodities, and concerns about artificial intelligence spending.
Nonetheless, Bury’s comments came at a sensitive time.
Bitcoin has been wildly volatile this week, falling below $71,000 before rebounding before falling again as global risk appetite worsened.
Bury’s history adds weight to the discussion, even if his call is controversial. His approach typically focuses on positioning and shifts in market psychology rather than precise predictions.
In this sense, the chart functions not so much as a prediction but as a warning of a failed rally and dimming of conviction.