Matt Hougan, chief information officer of Bitwise Asset Management, said that if Bitcoin takes a larger share of the global store of value market currently dominated by gold and government bonds, it could eventually reach $1 million per coin.
In a report earlier this week, Hougan said Bitcoin’s long-term rise depends less on short-term market cycles and more on how much of the world’s wealth-preserving market the cryptocurrency absorbs over time.
“A million sounds crazy,” Hogan said. “This means the price of Bitcoin will be 14 times higher than today.”
He pointed to several factors supporting the forecast, including the rapid growth of the global store of value market for gold, government bonds and other defensive assets, which has expanded from about $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion today. Bitcoin currently accounts for only about 4% of this market by value.
Hougan said that if the largest cryptocurrency captures roughly half of the market under current conditions, its price could approach the $1 million mark in about a decade. If the broader store-of-value market continues to expand, Bitcoin will need a smaller share to reach this level.
List price of $1 million
The $1 million prediction has become a recurring theme across the crypto industry. President Donald Trump’s son Eric recently doubled down on his $1 million bet on BTC. In August, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said Bitcoin could reach this price by 2030.
Jack Dorsey, who ran X (formerly Twitter) until 2021 and was a co-founder of payments company Block (formerly Square), said Bitcoin could hit $1 million within five years. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes that this goal may be achieved as early as 2028. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest predicts that Bitcoin could reach $3.8 million by the end of the decade. Bernstein predicted in 2024 that it would reach $1 million by 2033.
So why has the $1 million target become such a widely cited Bitcoin benchmark? CoinDesk asked several market analysts.
“It’s a neat title and shorthand for the idea that Bitcoin rivals gold as a store of value. The specific numbers don’t matter, it’s Bitcoin’s share of global wealth that matters,” said Mati Greenspan, market analyst and founder of Quantum Economy.
For market analyst and AdLunam co-founder Jason Fernandes, the milestone is more psychological than a precise valuation target, reflecting the belief that Bitcoin may ultimately win the store-of-value debate.
However, he also believes that part of the narrative is driven by marketing dynamics. “Some of the narrative is promotional because the round numbers spread well and are consistent with the incentives for holders,” Fernandez said, though he added that the underlying argument was not pure hype.
“I think many investors make a ‘static denominator’ mistake, valuing Bitcoin based on today’s store-of-value market rather than the larger future market,” he said.
For Fernandez, the real question is not whether $1 million in Bitcoin is theoretically possible, but whether the compounding time for institutional adoption is sufficient to justify the price.
Analysts agree on direction, but not timeline
Several analysts who shared comments with CoinDesk said Hougan’s prediction is reasonable in the long term, although most view it as a decade-scale adoption story rather than a near-term prediction.
“Geopolitical tensions strengthen the thesis for Bitcoin,” Greenspan said. “In uncertain times, investors look for neutral stores of value, and Bitcoin increasingly ranks alongside gold.”
Greenspan said that milestone is possible but could take a decade or more and require continued agency adoption and broader regulatory transparency.
Fernandez said Hugan’s argument was essentially a market share argument. Bitcoin doesn’t need to completely replace gold, he said; it just needs to capture a portion of the growing global store of value market.
“$1 million worth of Bitcoin means long-term adoption and market share growth in the global store of value market,” Fernandez said. “This is a paper about the end state of Bitcoin as it matures into a major global monetary asset.”
Institutional adoption remains key driver
Hougan believes that Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million and its decentralized network give it similar characteristics to traditional stores of value such as gold.
Fernandes said the long-term goal of $1 million depends largely on continued institutional adoption and the growth of the global store-of-value market.
Fernandes said: “BTC does not need to replace gold or fiat currencies; it only needs to capture around 17% of the projected $121 trillion store-of-value market over the next 10 years to justify a $1 million price tag.”
Greenspan said geopolitical uncertainty could further enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral asset.
“In uncertain times, investors seek neutral stores of value, and Bitcoin is increasingly aligned with gold,” he said, though he added that reaching such a valuation could take years of sustained adoption.
Bitlease founder Nima Beni said this timeline could accelerate if confidence in traditional financial assets weakens.
“Bitcoin will hit $1 million when confidence in traditional ‘safe’ assets collapses,” he said, noting that a potential sovereign debt crisis or disruption in the gold market could be catalysts.
Despite the optimistic forecasts, analysts say Bitcoin’s valuation path will depend more on long-term adoption and macroeconomic conditions than short-term market cycles.