The crypto crowd has given up on altcoins. That’s probably the most optimistic thing about them right now.
Santiment’s social volume tracker shows that the number of weekly mentions of “altseason” on social media has hit its lowest point in at least two years.
The term essentially represents greed and speculation in the retail industry. When everyone is talking about copycat season, it usually marks a peak. Historically, large shareholders start to accumulate holdings when no one is talking about it.
Every major peak in copycat season talk over the past two years has coincided with a local peak in DOGE. Every silence was followed by a rally. The pattern isn’t perfect, but the correlation between crowd disinterest and subsequent price recovery over multiple cycles is hard to ignore.
The current indifference is deserved. Altcoins have been hammered since the October crash. Dogecoin is down about 75% from its cycle peak. Solana has shed more than 60% of her body. Cardano lost over 70%.
The broader altcoin market has been declining relative to Bitcoin for months, with capital moving toward Bitcoin and stablecoins rather than chasing lower market cap tokens. If you’ve been holding on to alternatives through this dip, there’s little to get excited about.
Other mood indicators confirmed fatigue. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index spent much of February and March fluctuating between “fear” and “extreme fear.”
As of February, the Coinbase Premium Index remained negative for more than 40 consecutive days, indicating a lack of interest among U.S. retail investors even in Bitcoin, let alone more speculative assets. Google Trends data for terms like “best cryptocurrencies to buy” has flatlined, while searches for “bitcoin zero” set a U.S. record earlier this month.
Meanwhile, the situation on the chain has quietly run counter to sentiment. At the end of February, the number of Bitcoin wallets holding more than 100 BTC approached 20,000 for the first time, indicating that a large number of holders are hoarding Bitcoin.
The data does not directly mean a rebound is imminent; however, the ongoing conflict with Iran is weighing on financial markets around the world. The altcoin market needs Bitcoin to stabilize before it can move lower on the risk curve.
Conditions for cottage season haven’t arrived yet, but the mood is already building.