Cryptoquant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle indicator turned green for the first time since 2023, which could indicate that “market structures are starting to recover,” the firm’s on-chain market analyst Julio Moreno said on Wednesday.
“Historically, this is an important signal of regime change,” Moreno wrote. “When the indicator moves out of bear market territory and into early bull market territory, it usually indicates that the worst of the correction is over and market structure is starting to recover.”
For Mati Greenspan, former senior market analyst at eToro and founder of Quantum Economy, the CryptoQuant Bull and Bear Market Cycle Indicator is a regime shift indicator, not a crystal ball. “Historically, it has been most useful for identifying when Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a bear market asset,” he said.
Greenspan said real confirmation will come after demand, liquidity and price acceptance are at higher levels. “So now all eyes are on price action to confirm validation,” he added.
He recalled that when the indicator turned green again after sharp bearish phases in 2019 and early 2023, the market shifted into a “stronger bullish trend.” However, Moreno acknowledged that March 2022 remains an important exception. At that time, the indicator turned bullish but issued a false alarm before entering a deeper downtrend.
The analyst also highlighted why the current month of May 2026 is so critical. “On the one hand, the indicator shows the first constructive regime shift in many years,” he said. “Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a deep bear market asset, and the recovery at the 30-day moving average suggests momentum beneath the surface is improving.”
Currently, Bitcoin finds itself in a 2022-like tug-of-war. While on-chain indicators are recovering, the asset is struggling to completely reverse the $82,000 resistance level, which has held firm after rebounding 35% from February’s $60,000 lows despite multiple attempts to break out this month.
Moreno suggested that in order to confirm this bullish signal, Bitcoin must overcome the “exhaustion” currently visible in secondary indicators. Unlike clean early cycle entries in the past, this move clashes with neutral fear and greed indices and a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
Although Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes did not mention CryptoQuant’s indicator, he echoed the view that the cycle has turned and said he believed Bitcoin had bottomed at $60,000 earlier this year. Hayes, who is also the co-founder of the BitMEX exchange, pointed to $90,000 as the level where the rally will explode and reach the previous high of $126,000.
AdLunam co-founder Jason Fernandes concluded that while these metrics are useful, they are often misunderstood. “Indicators like MVRV (market cap to realized market cap) or NUPL (net unrealized profit and loss) were never designed to be precise trading signals,” he said. “They are better viewed as a behavioral framework for understanding where Bitcoin sits within the broader liquidity cycle.”