Russians are beginning to acknowledge that President Vladimir Putin has led the country into a dead end and is unable to shape its future, a former senior Kremlin official said.
in the most recent economist In an op-ed written anonymously, the former official noted that fellow government officials, regional governors and businessmen in Moscow have stopped using the first-person plural when describing Putin’s actions.
In other words, the Russian elite has found a subtle way to stop expressing solidarity with Putin, describing what “he” does rather than what “we” do.
The former official added that the shift occurred last spring but did not mean an insurgency was imminent because the state still controls key means of repression and fear.
At the same time, the regime is no longer bothering to sell a narrative of national rejuvenation or modernization to the rest of the country, which is losing vast amounts of blood and treasure on the battlefields of Ukraine.
“Ironically, Mr. Putin goes to war to preserve power and the system he created,” the official wrote. “Now, for the first time since the conflict began, Russians are beginning to imagine a future without him.”
The rising costs of Putin’s war in Ukraine have led to a shift in the country, where Russians are grappling with higher inflation, more taxes, crumbling infrastructure, tighter censorship and countless new restrictions.
High inflation also keeps interest rates high. As businesses and other borrowers struggle to repay their debts, default rates climb and warnings of a financial crisis multiply.
Another factor is the resistance of Russia’s elite, who are banned from living abroad and lose the protection of Western laws that protect their wealth.
The former official estimates that the state has confiscated about $60 billion in assets from private businessmen over the past three years, either outright nationalizing their properties or redistributing them to cronies.
“This is not to say that elites have suddenly discovered an interest in the rule of law or democracy,” the op-ed said. “But even those loyal to the regime long for rules and institutions that can resolve conflicts fairly.”
At the same time, as the rules-based global order fades away, Russia cannot game the system by using institutions such as the United Nations Security Council. The decline of the West also means that Russia is losing its foil, triggering an identity crisis.
Finally, the former official added, Russia’s previous social contract – in which citizens could enjoy a private life as long as they stayed away from politics – had collapsed.
The regime does not provide convenience, services and consumption, but only repression, invasion and censorship.
“People have to remain loyal, but there’s no telling what that loyalty will bring in the future,” the official said.
The Kremlin’s internet blockade has sparked outrage among ordinary Russians as the regime seeks to limit information about Ukraine’s economic woes and a surge in casualties.
And the country’s disconnect from the current regime comes just as Putin withdraws from public life and literally retreats into the bunker.
Sources told The Washington Post that he spent more time micromanaging the war in an underground bunker, paranoid about a coup or an assassination attempt by a Ukrainian drone. financial times.
A person who knew him told financial times Putin devotes 70% of his day to war and only 30% to other duties, including the economy.
Ukraine’s quagmire and persistent inflation weighed on market sentiment. Even a survey by Russia’s state-owned opinion polling agency showed that Putin’s approval rating has dropped from 77.8% at the beginning of the year to 65.6%, much higher than the 80% before the war.
“As long as Mr. Putin remains in power, the system can endure,” the former Russian official wrote in the Wall Street Journal. economist. “But every move he takes to protect and expand it accelerates its decline.”
This story originally appeared on Fortune.com
